METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum
Las Vegas, USA
17 Apr 2021
Lightweight
VS
91%
Hubbard
9%
Bush
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Austin HubbardwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Dakota Bush · UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Hubbard
→
Actual result
Hubbard wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Hubbard is a strong favourite at 91% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 28 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Hubbard has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 26 points.
Hubbard has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Hubbard's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
HubbardBush
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Hubbard
Bush
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
71"
Reach
+73"
34
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Hubbard
Bush
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
31.7
3.3
28.7
Performance Avg
0.0
26
Quality of Victory
0
41
Momentum Score
0
Hubbard
Bush
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.6
0.9
46%
Strike Accuracy
33%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
4
3
Body
0
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
9Distance4
0Clinch0
11Ground0
Hubbard
Bush
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.9
1.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Hubbard
Bush
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
76
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/27 fights
Chin rating based on
2/12 fights
Hubbard
Bush
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
41
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Hubbard
Bush
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Hubbard
Bush
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
6.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
HubbardBush
Strike Zones
Hubbard
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedBush
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Hubbard targets the head (70% of attacks) — Bush absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Bush targets the head (100% of attacks) — Hubbard absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Hubbard
RND
Bush
0/0R00/0
Hubbard · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Bush · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.8WinLossTrend
Hubbard · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
RongzhuRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
MarQuel MederosRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Alexander HernandezRating 6.4Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Michal FiglakRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
L · Sub · R2
Kurt HolobaughRating 2.8Submission
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08
Bush · Last 2
L · KO · R1
Viacheslav BorshchevRating 2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01
L · Dec · R3
Austin HubbardRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum · 2021-04