UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum
Las Vegas, USA
17 Apr 2021
Lightweight
VS
91%
Hubbard
9%
Bush
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Austin
Austin Hubbard
"Thud"
17 – 10
5'10"71" reachOrthodox34 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 32
DB
Dakota Bush
8 – 4
Well-Rounded2-fight slide31 yrsOrthodox73" reach5'10"
CFR 3

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Hubbard

Hubbard is a strong favourite at 91% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 28 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Hubbard has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 26 points.

Hubbard has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Hubbard's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Hubbard
Bush
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
71"
Reach
+73"
34
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Hubbard
Bush
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
31.7
3.3
28.7
Performance Avg
0.0
26
Quality of Victory
0
41
Momentum Score
0
Hubbard
Bush
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
0.9
46%
Strike Accuracy
33%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
4
3
Body
0
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
9Distance4
0Clinch0
11Ground0
Hubbard
Bush
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.9
1.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Hubbard
Bush
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
76
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/27 fights
Chin rating based on
2/12 fights
Hubbard
Bush
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
41
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Hubbard
Bush
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Hubbard
Bush
Striking0.7 / 0.0Volume6.7 / 0.0Grappling1.8 / 0.0Wrestling1.3 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure1.0 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
6.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Hubbard
Strike Zones
Bush
Hubbard
Attacking
14HEAD3BODY3LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Bush
Attacking
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD3BODY3LEGS20 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Hubbard targets the head (70% of attacks) — Bush absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Bush targets the head (100% of attacks) — Hubbard absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Hubbard
RND
Bush
0/0R00/0

Hubbard · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5L4.5W5.7L4.2W2.2L4.5W5.7L2.8L4.5W6.4L6.8L6.0L2019-052020-062021-082024-102025-08
WinLossTrend

Bush · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.8
0105.5L2.0L2021-042022-01
WinLossTrend

Hubbard · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
RongzhuRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
MarQuel MederosRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Alexander HernandezRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Michal FiglakRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
L · Sub · R2
Kurt HolobaughRating 2.8
Submission
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08

Bush · Last 2

L · KO · R1
Viacheslav BorshchevRating 2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01
L · Dec · R3
Austin HubbardRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum · 2021-04

News & Media

Austin Hubbard · Dakota Bush
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