UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis
Nashville, USA
23 Mar 2019
Women's Flyweight
VS
41%
Davis
59%
Maia
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Maia
This is a genuine toss-up — Davis at 41% vs Maia at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Maia throws more volume but Davis connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Davis's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Davis
Maia
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"+
Height
5'4"
68"+
Reach
64"
41
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Davis
Maia
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.5
31.2
39.7
Performance Avg
38.6
28
Quality of Victory
31
45
Momentum Score
45
Davis
Maia
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.7
47%
Strike Accuracy
40%
1.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
23
14
Body
3
17
Leg
0
RangeRange
38Distance24
3Clinch2
0Ground0
Davis
Maia
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.3
2.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Davis
Maia
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
88
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
10 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/32 fights
Chin rating based on
12/31 fights
Davis
Maia
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
45
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Davis
Maia
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
13%
17%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
1
7
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Davis
Maia
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
3.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.3
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
2.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.7
8.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.7
DavisMaia
Strike Zones
Davis
Attacking
41 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedMaia
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
41 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Davis targets the legs (41% of attacks) — Maia absorbs 41% of strikes there
🎯Maia targets the head (88% of attacks) — Davis absorbs 88% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Davis
RND
Maia
0/0R00/0
Davis · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Maia · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Davis · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
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Maia · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
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