UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez
Houston, USA
21 Feb 2026
Middleweight
VS
48%
Strickland
52%
Hernandez
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 2:23
Sean
Sean Strickland
31 – 7
6'1"76" reachOrthodox35 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 58
AH
Anthony Hernandez
"Fluffy"
15 – 3
Pressure Fighter32 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'0"
CFR 64

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Hernandez

This is a genuine toss-up — Strickland at 48% vs Hernandez at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Strickland throws more volume but Hernandez connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Strickland's chin rating of 46 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Hernandez has a chin rating of 44 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Strickland
Hernandez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
6'0"
76"+
Reach
75"
35
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Strickland
Hernandez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.7
63.7
50.9
Performance Avg
56.2
37
Quality of Victory
44
100
Momentum Score
98
Strickland
Hernandez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
1.1
45%
Strike Accuracy
66%
4.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.7
5 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
39
Head
5
2
Body
2
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
32Distance9
2Clinch0
7Ground0
Strickland
Hernandez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.0
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Strickland
Hernandez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
46
44
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/38 fights
Chin rating based on
12/18 fights
Strickland
Hernandez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
98
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · KO · R3
W · Sub · R4
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R5
W · Sub · R2
Strickland
Hernandez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
78%
5
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
5
12
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Strickland
Hernandez
Striking4.2 / 3.7Volume6.8 / 3.3Grappling2.0 / 5.0Wrestling1.4 / 3.5Submission0.6 / 5.6Pressure4.5 / 7.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.7
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.0
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.5
0.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.6
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.7
6.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.3
Strickland
Strike Zones
Hernandez
Strickland
Attacking
39HEAD2BODY0LEGS41 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD2BODY2LEGS9 absorbed
Hernandez
Attacking
5HEAD2BODY2LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
39HEAD2BODY0LEGS41 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Strickland targets the head (95% of attacks) — Hernandez absorbs 95% of strikes there
🎯Hernandez targets the head (56% of attacks) — Strickland absorbs 56% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Strickland
RND
Hernandez
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Strickland · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.0W4.5W6.0L4.5W5.5W4.5W6.6L4.7W2.0L5.2W4.5W6.6W4.5W4.5W5.4W3.6L6.5L5.9W5.9W5.9W7.4L5.5W7.4L6.7W6.4W2014-032017-112022-022024-062026-05
WinLossTrend

Hernandez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0102.8L6.3W2.1L6.5W4.5W5.5W6.9W6.2W6.1W5.8W6.8W3.9L2019-022021-022023-052025-022026-02
WinLossTrend

Strickland · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Khamzat ChimaevRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · KO · R3
Anthony HernandezRating 6.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · Dec · R5
Dricus Du PlessisRating 7.4
Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Dec · R5
Paulo CostaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
L · Dec · R5
Dricus Du PlessisRating 7.4
Decision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01

Hernandez · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Sean StricklandRating 3.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
W · Sub · R4
Roman DolidzeRating 6.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
W · Dec · R3
Brendan AllenRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
W · KO · R5
Michel PereiraRating 6.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
W · Sub · R2
Roman KopylovRating 6.2
Submission
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02

News & Media

Sean Strickland · Anthony Hernandez
← Back to fights