UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
Auburn Hills, USA
20 Nov 2010
Middleweight
VS
52%
Simpson
48%
Munoz
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
AS
Aaron Simpson
"A-Train"
12 – 5
6'0"73" reachOrthodox51 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 18
MM
Mark Munoz
"The Filipino Wrecking Machine"
14 – 6
Well-Rounded48 yrsOrthodox71" reach6'0"
CFR 16

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Simpson

This is a genuine toss-up — Simpson at 52% vs Munoz at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Munoz throws more volume but Simpson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Simpson's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Munoz has a chin rating of 8 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Simpson
Munoz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
6'0"
73"+
Reach
71"
51
Age
+48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Simpson
Munoz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.5
15.9
46.0
Performance Avg
48.3
34
Quality of Victory
41
76
Momentum Score
55
Simpson
Munoz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.4
49%
Strike Accuracy
47%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.6
2 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
13
7
Body
8
1
Leg
8
RangeRange
9Distance5
8Clinch21
0Ground3
Simpson
Munoz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.3
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Simpson
Munoz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
8
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/17 fights
Chin rating based on
15/20 fights
Simpson
Munoz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
55
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Simpson
Munoz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
44%
2
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Simpson
Munoz
Striking4.1 / 5.6Volume7.0 / 5.6Grappling1.7 / 1.3Wrestling1.2 / 0.9Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure3.9 / 4.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.6
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.3
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.9
7.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.6
Simpson
Strike Zones
Munoz
Simpson
Attacking
9HEAD7BODY1LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD8BODY8LEGS29 absorbed
Munoz
Attacking
13HEAD8BODY8LEGS29 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD7BODY1LEGS17 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Simpson targets the head (53% of attacks) — Munoz absorbs 53% of strikes there
🎯Munoz targets the head (45% of attacks) — Simpson absorbs 45% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Simpson
RND
Munoz
0/0R00/0

Simpson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.0W5.4W4.5W2.8L5.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W2.8L2009-042010-062011-072012-072012-10
WinLossTrend

Munoz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.8
0101.5L4.5W5.0W5.2W5.5L4.5W5.0W4.5W5.1W2.9L4.5W1.5L1.5L1.5L4.5W2009-032010-082011-112014-052015-05
WinLossTrend

Simpson · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Mike PierceRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot · 2012-10
W · Dec · R3
Kenny RobertsonRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman · 2012-07
L · Dec · R3
Ronny MarkesRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger · 2012-02
W · Dec · R3
Eric SchaferRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3 · 2011-10
W · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber · 2011-07

Munoz · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Luke BarnattRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Faber · 2015-05
L · Sub · R1
Roan CarneiroRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano · 2015-02
L · Sub · R1
Gegard MousasiRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousasi · 2014-05
L · KO · R1
Lyoto MachidaRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Munoz · 2013-10
W · Dec · R3
Tim BoetschRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman · 2013-07

News & Media

Aaron Simpson · Mark Munoz
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