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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt
Las Vegas, USA
29 May 2016
Welterweight
VS
63%
Masvidal
37%
Larkin
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JM
Jorge Masvidal
"Gamebred"
35 – 17
5'11"74" reachOrthodox41 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 35
LL
Lorenz Larkin
"The Monsoon"
18 – 6
Striker2-fight win streak39 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'11"
CFR 21
★ Official Result
Lorenz LarkinwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Jorge Masvidal · UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Masvidal
→
Actual result
Larkin wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis

Masvidal holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Larkin has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Larkin has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Masvidal's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
MasvidalLarkin
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Masvidal
Larkin
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
74"+
Reach
72"
41
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Masvidal
Larkin
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.2
20.5
47.0
Performance Avg
47.0
42
Quality of Victory
45
43
Momentum Score
92
Masvidal
Larkin
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
1.9
49%
Strike Accuracy
50%
5.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.0
5 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
10
2
Body
1
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
6Distance11
8Clinch2
0Ground0
Masvidal
Larkin
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.0
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Masvidal
Larkin
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
70
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/52 fights
Chin rating based on
10/24 fights
Masvidal
Larkin
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
92
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R5
W · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Masvidal
Larkin
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
60%
5
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Masvidal
Larkin
Striking5.3 / 7.0Volume4.4 / 4.2Grappling1.7 / 1.0Wrestling1.2 / 0.7Submission0.8 / 0.0Pressure5.1 / 5.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.0
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
0.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.7
4.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.2
Masvidal
Strike Zones
Larkin
Masvidal
Attacking
10HEAD2BODY2LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD1BODY2LEGS13 absorbed
Larkin
Attacking
10HEAD1BODY2LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD2BODY2LEGS14 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Masvidal targets the head (71% of attacks) — Larkin absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Larkin targets the head (77% of attacks) — Masvidal absorbs 77% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Masvidal
RND
Larkin
0/0R00/0

Masvidal · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.6W6.0W5.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5L5.0W5.5L5.5L4.5W5.0W5.2W5.5L6.1L5.1W5.0W4.3W6.6L3.2L6.8L5.7L2013-042015-042017-012020-072023-04
WinLossTrend

Larkin · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5L4.5W5.5L1.5L5.8L5.0W5.8W5.5L4.5W5.6W2013-042014-052015-062016-08
WinLossTrend

Masvidal · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7
Decision
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · 2023-04
L · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · KO · R2
Kamaru UsmanRating 3.2
KO/TKO
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · 2020-07
W · R3
Nate DiazRating 4.3
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11

Larkin · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Neil MagnyRating 5.6
KO/TKO
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
W · Dec · R3
Jorge MasvidalRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05
L · Dec · R3
Albert TumenovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit · 2016-01
W · KO · R2
Santiago PonzinibbioRating 5.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero · 2015-06
W · KO · R1
John HowardRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01

News & Media

Jorge Masvidal · Lorenz Larkin
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