UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
Las Vegas, USA
24 May 2014
Featherweight
VS
77%
Sicilia
23%
Phillips
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Sicilia
Sicilia is a strong favourite at 77% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Sicilia has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 45 points.
Striking split: Sicilia throws more volume but Phillips connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Sicilia's chin rating of 16 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Sicilia
Phillips
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'9"
67"
Reach
+71"
40
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Sicilia
Phillips
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.0
4.9
43.7
Performance Avg
0.0
45
Quality of Victory
0
59
Momentum Score
0
Sicilia
Phillips
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
0.3
40%
Strike Accuracy
54%
6.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
1
4
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance1
1Clinch1
10Ground0
Sicilia
Phillips
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.0
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
0.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Sicilia
Phillips
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
16
82
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/23 fights
Chin rating based on
4/17 fights
Sicilia
Phillips
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Sicilia
Phillips
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Sicilia
Phillips
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
SiciliaPhillips
Strike Zones
Sicilia
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedPhillips
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Sicilia targets the head (69% of attacks) — Phillips absorbs 69% of strikes there
🎯Phillips targets the head (50% of attacks) — Sicilia absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Sicilia
RND
Phillips
0/0R00/0
Sicilia · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Phillips · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Sicilia · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Gavin TuckerRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Browne · 2017-02
L · Sub · R2
Gabriel BenitezRating 2.9Submission
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson · 2016-09
L · KO · R1
Dooho ChoiRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Masvidal · 2015-11
W · Dec · R3
Yaotzin MezaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee · 2015-07
W · KO · R1
Akira CorassaniRating 5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01
Phillips · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Gaston BolanosRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
L · Sub · R2
Jack ShoreRating 3.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige · 2020-07
L · Dec · R3
Matt HobarRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Dos Anjos · 2014-08
L · Dec · R3
Sam SiciliaRating 5.5Decision
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw · 2014-05