UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento
St. Louis, USA
11 May 2024
Lightweight
VS
58%
McKinney
42%
Ribovics
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:37
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: McKinney
This is a genuine toss-up — McKinney at 58% vs Ribovics at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
McKinney has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 24 points.
McKinney has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
McKinney's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
McKinney
Ribovics
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
73"+
Reach
69"
31
Age
+30
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
McKinney
Ribovics
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
65.7
48.1
59.3
Performance Avg
43.1
58
Quality of Victory
34
98
Momentum Score
63
McKinney
Ribovics
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
5.1
3.2
56%
Strike Accuracy
47%
7.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.6
5 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
3
2
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance4
2Clinch1
0Ground0
McKinney
Ribovics
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.8
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
McKinney
Ribovics
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
84
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/26 fights
Chin rating based on
7/18 fights
McKinney
Ribovics
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
98
63
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
McKinney
Ribovics
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
25%
5
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
McKinney
Ribovics
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
1.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.1
McKinneyRibovics
Strike Zones
McKinney
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedRibovics
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯McKinney targets the head (60% of attacks) — Ribovics absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Ribovics targets the head (60% of attacks) — McKinney absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
McKinney
RND
Ribovics
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
McKinney · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Ribovics · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
McKinney · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Kyle NelsonRating 5.1KO/TKO
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L · Sub · R1
Chris DuncanRating 2.8Submission
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Sub · R1
Viacheslav BorshchevRating 5.5Submission
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · KO · R1
Damir HadzovicRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02
L · KO · R1
Esteban RibovicsRating 2.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
Ribovics · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Mateusz GamrotRating 3.8Submission
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Elves BrenerRating 5.3Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Nasrat HaqparastRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Daniel ZellhuberRating 4.9Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
W · KO · R1
Terrance McKinneyRating 6.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05