UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw
Brooklyn, USA
19 Jan 2019
Heavyweight
VS
72%
Hardy
28%
Crowder
Win Probability
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Hardy
Hardy is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Hardy has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 23 points.
Hardy has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Hardy's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Crowder has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Hardy
Crowder
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'5"+
Height
6'3"
80"+
Reach
76"
37
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Hardy
Crowder
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
29.7
11.3
47.8
Performance Avg
29.8
50
Quality of Victory
28
76
Momentum Score
43
Hardy
Crowder
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
1.6
50%
Strike Accuracy
38%
8.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
5
1
Body
0
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance5
1Clinch0
1Ground0
Hardy
Crowder
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.6
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
0.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Hardy
Crowder
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
30
56
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/12 fights
Chin rating based on
3/14 fights
Hardy
Crowder
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
43
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · R2
L · KO · R1
Hardy
Crowder
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Hardy
Crowder
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
0.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
HardyCrowder
Strike Zones
Hardy
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedCrowder
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Hardy targets the head (63% of attacks) — Crowder absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯Crowder targets the head (100% of attacks) — Hardy absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Hardy
RND
Crowder
0/0R00/0
Hardy · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Crowder · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.8WinLossTrend
Hardy · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Serghei SpivacRating 2KO/TKO
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · KO · R1
Tai TuivasaRating 1.9KO/TKO
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Marcin TyburaRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · 2020-12
W · KO · R2
Maurice GreeneRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva · 2020-10
W · Dec · R3
Yorgan De CastroRating 4.5Decision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
Crowder · Last 3
L · KO · R1
Jairzinho RozenstruikRating 2.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. The Korean Zombie · 2019-06
W · R2
Greg HardyRating 4.2UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · 2019-01
L · KO · R1
Justin WillisRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · 2017-12