METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
Las Vegas, USA
29 Apr 2023
Heavyweight
VS
42%
Lima
58%
Acosta
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Marcos Rogerio de LimawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Waldo Cortes Acosta · UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Acosta
→
Actual result
Lima wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Lima at 42% vs Acosta at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Acosta throws more volume but Lima connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Lima's chin rating of 16 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
LimaAcosta
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Lima
Acosta
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'4"
75"
Reach
+78"
41
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Lima
Acosta
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
47.3
65.8
53.8
Performance Avg
55.7
49
Quality of Victory
42
59
Momentum Score
100
Lima
Acosta
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.6
2.4
60%
Strike Accuracy
50%
6.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.5
6 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
34
4
Body
4
6
Leg
5
RangeRange
17Distance43
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Lima
Acosta
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lima
Acosta
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
16
94
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
5
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/32 fights
Chin rating based on
13/20 fights
Lima
Acosta
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
100
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Lima
Acosta
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
73%
50%
6
KO / TKO Wins
5
2
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lima
Acosta
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.5
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
1.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.5
LimaAcosta
Strike Zones
Lima
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
43 absorbedAcosta
Attacking
43 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lima targets the head (41% of attacks) — Acosta absorbs 41% of strikes there
🎯Acosta targets the head (79% of attacks) — Lima absorbs 79% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lima
RND
Acosta
0/0R00/0
Lima · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Acosta · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Lima · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Junior TafaRating 6.1KO/TKO
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · KO · R1
Derrick LewisRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon · 2023-04
W · Sub · R1
Andrei ArlovskiRating 5.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · 2022-10
L · Dec · R3
Blagoy IvanovRating 5.5Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
Acosta · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Alexander VolkovRating 6.8Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · KO · R2
Derrick LewisRating 6.5KO/TKO
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · KO · R1
Shamil GazievRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
W · KO · R1
Ante DelijaRating 6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11
L · Dec · R3
Sergei PavlovichRating 6.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08