UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
Las Vegas, USA
29 Apr 2023
Heavyweight
VS
42%
Lima
58%
Acosta
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Marcos
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
"Pezao"
22 – 10
6'1"75" reachOrthodox40 yrsStriker
CFR 47
Waldo
Waldo Cortes Acosta
"Salsa Boy"
17 – 3
Striker34 yrsOrthodox78" reach6'4"
CFR 66

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Acosta

This is a genuine toss-up — Lima at 42% vs Acosta at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Acosta throws more volume but Lima connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Lima's chin rating of 16 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Lima
Acosta
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'4"
75"
Reach
+78"
40
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Lima
Acosta
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
47.3
65.8
53.8
Performance Avg
55.7
49
Quality of Victory
42
59
Momentum Score
100
Lima
Acosta
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
2.4
60%
Strike Accuracy
50%
6.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.5
6 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
34
4
Body
4
6
Leg
5
RangeRange
17Distance43
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Lima
Acosta
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lima
Acosta
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
16
94
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
5
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/32 fights
Chin rating based on
13/20 fights
Lima
Acosta
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
100
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Lima
Acosta
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
73%
50%
6
KO / TKO Wins
5
2
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Lima
Acosta
Striking6.7 / 6.5Volume3.4 / 5.5Grappling2.1 / 1.2Wrestling1.5 / 0.8Submission1.8 / 0.0Pressure6.9 / 5.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.5
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
1.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.5
Lima
Strike Zones
Acosta
Lima
Attacking
7HEAD4BODY6LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
34HEAD4BODY5LEGS43 absorbed
Acosta
Attacking
34HEAD4BODY5LEGS43 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD4BODY6LEGS17 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Lima targets the head (41% of attacks) — Acosta absorbs 41% of strikes there
🎯Acosta targets the head (79% of attacks) — Lima absorbs 79% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Lima
RND
Acosta
0/0R00/0

Lima · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.0W5.0W2.7L5.0W1.5L5.0W3.3L4.5W2.8L5.0W2.3L4.5W5.0W5.5L5.7W6.0W2.7L6.1W2014-052017-012020-112023-042024-02
WinLossTrend

Acosta · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0104.5W4.5W6.1L5.0W5.2W5.3W5.7W5.0W6.7L6.0W5.7W6.5W6.8L2022-102024-012025-082026-05
WinLossTrend

Lima · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Junior TafaRating 6.1
KO/TKO
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · KO · R1
Derrick LewisRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon · 2023-04
W · Sub · R1
Andrei ArlovskiRating 5.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · 2022-10
L · Dec · R3
Blagoy IvanovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05

Acosta · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Alexander VolkovRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · KO · R2
Derrick LewisRating 6.5
KO/TKO
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · KO · R1
Shamil GazievRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
W · KO · R1
Ante DelijaRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11
L · Dec · R3
Sergei PavlovichRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08

News & Media

Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Waldo Cortes Acosta
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