METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
22 Jun 2024
Middleweight
VS
45%
Gastelum
55%
Rodriguez
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Kelvin GastelumwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Daniel Rodriguez · UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Rodriguez
→
Actual result
Gastelum wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Gastelum at 45% vs Rodriguez at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Gastelum's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Rodriguez has a chin rating of 40 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
GastelumRodriguez
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Gastelum
Rodriguez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'1"
71"
Reach
+74"
34+
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Gastelum
Rodriguez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
41.4
50.4
47.4
Performance Avg
48.8
42
Quality of Victory
37
28
Momentum Score
70
Gastelum
Rodriguez
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.3
/ 10
4.3
/ 10
4.2
Style: Pressure
4.8
6.3
Style: Volume
6.1
3 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
3 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
23
Head
19
4
Body
8
4
Leg
1
RangeRange
24Distance28
0Clinch0
7Ground0
Gastelum
Rodriguez
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.7
/ 10
2.2
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.6
1.4
Submission Style (/10)
1.0
2
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Gastelum
Rodriguez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
40
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
4
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/32 fights
Chin rating based on
15/25 fights
Gastelum
Rodriguez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
70
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Gastelum
Rodriguez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
36%
40%
3
KO / TKO Wins
3
2
Submission Wins
1
9
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Gastelum
Rodriguez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.1
GastelumRodriguez
Strike Zones
Gastelum
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
28 absorbedRodriguez
Attacking
28 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Gastelum targets the head (74% of attacks) — Rodriguez absorbs 74% of strikes there
🎯Rodriguez targets the head (68% of attacks) — Gastelum absorbs 68% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Gastelum
RND
Rodriguez
0/0R00/0
Gastelum · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Vicente LuqueSubmission
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W · Dec · R3
Dustin StoltzfusDecision
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Joe PyferDecision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezDecision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
L · Sub · R3
Sean BradySubmission
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
Rodriguez · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Uros MedicKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez · 2026-08
W · Dec · R3
Kevin HollandDecision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · KO · R3
Santiago PonzinibbioKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoDecision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Kelvin GastelumDecision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06