UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
22 Jun 2024
Middleweight
VS
44%
Gastelum
56%
Rodriguez
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Rodriguez
This is a genuine toss-up — Gastelum at 44% vs Rodriguez at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Rodriguez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Gastelum's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Rodriguez has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Gastelum
Rodriguez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'1"
71"
Reach
+74"
34+
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Gastelum
Rodriguez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
41.4
53.3
47.4
Performance Avg
50.7
42
Quality of Victory
37
28
Momentum Score
70
Gastelum
Rodriguez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
2.9
43%
Strike Accuracy
50%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.4
3 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
23
Head
19
4
Body
8
4
Leg
1
RangeRange
24Distance28
0Clinch0
7Ground0
Gastelum
Rodriguez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.2
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Gastelum
Rodriguez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
62
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
4
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/32 fights
Chin rating based on
14/25 fights
Gastelum
Rodriguez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
70
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Gastelum
Rodriguez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
36%
40%
3
KO / TKO Wins
3
2
Submission Wins
1
9
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Gastelum
Rodriguez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.4
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.9
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.2
GastelumRodriguez
Strike Zones
Gastelum
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
28 absorbedRodriguez
Attacking
28 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Gastelum targets the head (74% of attacks) — Rodriguez absorbs 74% of strikes there
🎯Rodriguez targets the head (68% of attacks) — Gastelum absorbs 68% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Gastelum
RND
Rodriguez
0/0R00/0
Gastelum · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Rodriguez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Gastelum · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Vicente LuqueRating 3Submission
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W · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
L · Sub · R3
Sean BradyRating 5.1Submission
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Rodriguez · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Kevin HollandRating 5.1Decision
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W · KO · R3
Santiago PonzinibbioRating 6KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 4.5Decision
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Kelvin GastelumRating 5.8Decision
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L · KO · R1
Ian Machado GarryRating 3KO/TKO
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