UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2
Goiania, Brazil
9 Nov 2013
Welterweight
VS
43%
Thiago
57%
Thatch
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:10
PT
Paulo Thiago
18 – 9
5'11"74" reachOrthodox45 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 14
BT
Brandon Thatch
"Rukus"
11 – 5
Knockout Artist4-fight slide40 yrsSwitch74" reach6'2"
CFR 18

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Thatch

This is a genuine toss-up — Thiago at 43% vs Thatch at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Thatch has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 23 points.

Thatch has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Thiago's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Thatch has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Thiago
Thatch
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'2"
74"
Reach
74"
45
Age
+40
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Thiago
Thatch
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.5
17.8
37.5
Performance Avg
49.3
37
Quality of Victory
60
39
Momentum Score
33
Thiago
Thatch
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
1.4
35%
Strike Accuracy
45%
2.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
7
1
Body
5
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance7
4Clinch3
0Ground2
Thiago
Thatch
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Thiago
Thatch
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
52
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/27 fights
Chin rating based on
6/16 fights
Thiago
Thatch
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
33
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R4
W · KO · R1
Thiago
Thatch
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Thiago
Thatch
Striking2.8 / 10.0Volume5.6 / 0.7Grappling3.0 / 0.0Wrestling2.1 / 0.0Submission2.0 / 0.0Pressure4.0 / 8.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
5.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
Thiago
Strike Zones
Thatch
Thiago
Attacking
4HEAD1BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD5BODY0LEGS12 absorbed
Thatch
Attacking
7HEAD5BODY0LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD1BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Thiago targets the head (80% of attacks) — Thatch absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Thatch targets the head (58% of attacks) — Thiago absorbs 58% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Thiago
RND
Thatch
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Thiago · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.0W5.5L4.5W5.2W5.5L5.5L4.5W1.5L5.5L4.5W1.5L5.5L5.5L2009-022010-062012-112014-09
WinLossTrend

Thatch · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.7
0105.0W5.0W3.4L2.6L4.0L2.2L2013-082013-112015-022015-072016-032016-12
WinLossTrend

Thiago · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Sean SpencerRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arlovski · 2014-09
L · Dec · R3
Gasan UmalatovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Maldonado · 2014-05
L · KO · R1
Brandon ThatchRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2 · 2013-11
W · Dec · R3
Michel PrazeresRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold · 2013-05
L · Dec · R3
Dong Hyun KimRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le · 2012-11

Thatch · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Niko PriceRating 2.2
Submission
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey · 2016-12
L · Sub · R3
Siyar BahadurzadaRating 4
Submission
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz · 2016-03
L · Sub · R1
Gunnar NelsonRating 2.6
Submission
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · 2015-07
L · Sub · R4
Benson HendersonRating 3.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Thatch · 2015-02
W · KO · R1
Paulo ThiagoRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2 · 2013-11

News & Media

Paulo Thiago · Brandon Thatch
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