★ Championship Bout · Heavyweight
UFC 100
Las Vegas, USA
11 Jul 2009
Heavyweight
VS
53%
Lesnar
47%
Mir
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:48
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Lesnar
This is a genuine toss-up — Lesnar at 53% vs Mir at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Lesnar has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 21 points.
Lesnar has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Lesnar's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Mir has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Lesnar
Mir
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
6'3"
81"+
Reach
79"
48
Age
+47
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Lesnar
Mir
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
23.6
21.2
69.0
Performance Avg
57.4
77
Quality of Victory
56
66
Momentum Score
88
Lesnar
Mir
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
1.1
70%
Strike Accuracy
48%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
2 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
2
0
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
0Distance1
0Clinch3
17Ground0
Lesnar
Mir
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.3
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lesnar
Mir
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
8
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8 fights
Chin rating based on
27/29 fights
Lesnar
Mir
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
66
88
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Lesnar
Mir
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
81%
2
KO / TKO Wins
5
1
Submission Wins
8
1
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lesnar
Mir
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.5
3.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.2
LesnarMir
Strike Zones
Lesnar
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedMir
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lesnar targets the head (100% of attacks) — Mir absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Mir targets the head (50% of attacks) — Lesnar absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lesnar
RND
Mir
0/0R00/0
Lesnar · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.5WinLossTrend
Mir · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Lesnar · Last 5
Upcoming
Mark HuntUFC 200: Tate vs Nunes · 2016-07
L · KO · R1
Alistair OvereemRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem · 2011-12
L · KO · R1
Cain VelasquezRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez · 2010-10
W · Sub · R2
Shane CarwinRating 5.1Submission
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin · 2010-07
W · KO · R2
Frank MirRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC 100 · 2009-07
Mir · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Mark HuntRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir · 2016-03
L · Dec · R3
Andrei ArlovskiRating 6.2Decision
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2 · 2015-09
W · KO · R1
Todd DuffeeRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee · 2015-07
W · KO · R1
Antonio SilvaRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir · 2015-02
L · Dec · R3
Alistair OvereemRating 5.5Decision
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02