UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
New Orleans, USA
19 Jul 2025
Middleweight
VS
45%
Vettori
55%
Allen
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Allen
This is a genuine toss-up — Vettori at 45% vs Allen at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Allen has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Striking split: Vettori throws more volume but Allen connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Allen has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Vettori
Allen
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'2"
74"
Reach
+75"
32
Age
+30
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Vettori
Allen
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.2
61.8
40.0
Performance Avg
56.8
31
Quality of Victory
43
84
Momentum Score
88
Vettori
Allen
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.3
48%
Strike Accuracy
53%
1.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
39
Head
31
4
Body
6
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
42Distance36
2Clinch3
0Ground0
Vettori
Allen
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
3.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.9
2.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Vettori
Allen
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
84
52
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
12 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/29 fights
Chin rating based on
19/33 fights
Vettori
Allen
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
88
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
Upcoming
W · KO · R4
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Vettori
Allen
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
22%
64%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
7
7
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Vettori
Allen
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.0
3.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.9
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.4
2.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
3.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
7.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.4
VettoriAllen
Strike Zones
Vettori
Attacking
44 landedAbsorbing
39 absorbedAllen
Attacking
39 landedAbsorbing
44 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Vettori targets the head (89% of attacks) — Allen absorbs 89% of strikes there
🎯Allen targets the head (79% of attacks) — Vettori absorbs 79% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Vettori
RND
Allen
0/0R00/0
Vettori · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.8WinLossTrend
Allen · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Vettori · Last 5
Upcoming
Ismail NaurdievUFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06
L · Dec · R3
Brunno FerreiraRating 7.1Decision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Brendan AllenRating 6.8Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Dec · R5
Roman DolidzeRating 6.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03
L · Dec · R5
Jared CannonierRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · 2023-06
Allen · Last 5
Upcoming
Edmen ShahbazyanUFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · KO · R4
Reinier de RidderRating 6.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
Marvin VettoriRating 5.3Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Dec · R3
Anthony HernandezRating 6.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Nassourdine ImavovRating 6.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09