UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
Indianapolis, USA
25 Sept 2010
Lightweight
VS
28%
Guillard
72%
Stephens
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Stephens
Stephens is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Guillard throws more volume but Stephens connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Guillard's chin rating of 2 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Stephens has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Guillard
Stephens
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
71"
Reach
71"
43
Age
+40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Guillard
Stephens
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.7
45.0
49.7
Performance Avg
41.1
45
Quality of Victory
40
73
Momentum Score
76
Guillard
Stephens
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.3
41%
Strike Accuracy
42%
7.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.5
7 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
8
7
Body
6
1
Leg
12
RangeRange
24Distance26
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Guillard
Stephens
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Guillard
Stephens
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
2
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
6
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/50 fights
Chin rating based on
36/52 fights
Guillard
Stephens
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
73
76
Current form
7-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Guillard
Stephens
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
58%
47%
7
KO / TKO Wins
7
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Guillard
Stephens
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.5
0.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.1
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
3.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
GuillardStephens
Strike Zones
Guillard
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedStephens
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Guillard targets the head (68% of attacks) — Stephens absorbs 68% of strikes there
🎯Stephens targets the legs (46% of attacks) — Guillard absorbs 46% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Guillard
RND
Stephens
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Guillard · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Stephens · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Guillard · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Michael JohnsonRating 5.6Decision
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L · Sub · R1
King GreenRating 2.2Submission
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