METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonnen
Boston, USA
17 Aug 2013
Bantamweight
VS
39%
Pickett
61%
McDonald
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:43
★ Official Result
Michael McDonaldwinsSubmissionR2 · 3:43
def. Brad Pickett · UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonnen
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
McDonald
→
Actual result
McDonald wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
McDonald holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Pickett has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
McDonald has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Pickett's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
McDonald has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
PickettMcDonald
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Pickett
McDonald
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'9"
68"
Reach
+70"
47
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pickett
McDonald
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.8
22.0
36.4
Performance Avg
53.6
37
Quality of Victory
45
60
Momentum Score
100
Pickett
McDonald
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.1
1.1
30%
Strike Accuracy
40%
2.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
8
0
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance9
0Clinch0
4Ground0
Pickett
McDonald
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Pickett
McDonald
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
54
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/39 fights
Chin rating based on
9/21 fights
Pickett
McDonald
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R4
Pickett
McDonald
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
67%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
2
3
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pickett
McDonald
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.7
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
5.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
PickettMcDonald
Strike Zones
Pickett
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedMcDonald
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pickett targets the head (100% of attacks) — McDonald absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯McDonald targets the head (89% of attacks) — Pickett absorbs 89% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pickett
RND
McDonald
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0
Pickett · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
McDonald · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Pickett · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Marlon VeraRating 4.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson · 2017-03
L · Dec · R3
Urijah FaberRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
L · Sub · R1
Iuri AlcantaraRating 1.5Submission
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson · 2016-10
W · Dec · R3
Francisco RiveraRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bisping · 2016-02
L · KO · R2
Thomas AlmeidaRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · 2015-07
McDonald · Last 5
L · KO · R1
John LinekerRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker · 2016-07
W · Sub · R2
Masanori KaneharaRating 5.2Submission
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit · 2016-01
L · Sub · R2
Urijah FaberRating 2.8Submission
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2 · 2013-12
W · Sub · R2
Brad PickettRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonnen · 2013-08
L · Sub · R4
Renan BaraoRating 3.4Submission
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald · 2013-02