METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonnen
Boston, USA
17 Aug 2013
Bantamweight
VS
39%
Pickett
61%
McDonald
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:43
BP
Brad Pickett
"One Punch"
25 – 14
5'6"68" reachOrthodox47 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 14
MM
Michael McDonald
"Mayday"
17 – 4
Well-Rounded35 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'9"
CFR 22
★ Official Result
Michael McDonaldwinsSubmissionR2 · 3:43
def. Brad Pickett · UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonnen

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
McDonald
→
Actual result
McDonald wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis

McDonald holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Pickett has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Pickett's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

McDonald has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
PickettMcDonald
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Pickett
McDonald
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'9"
68"
Reach
+70"
47
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pickett
McDonald
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.8
22.0
36.4
Performance Avg
53.6
37
Quality of Victory
45
60
Momentum Score
100
Pickett
McDonald
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.7
/ 10
4.7
/ 10
3.9
Style: Pressure
6.7
5.5
Style: Volume
4.0
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
8
0
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance9
0Clinch0
4Ground0
Pickett
McDonald
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.0
/ 10
3.5
/ 10
2.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.4
2.0
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
1
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Pickett
McDonald
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
54
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/39 fights
Chin rating based on
9/21 fights
Pickett
McDonald
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R4
Pickett
McDonald
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
67%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
2
3
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Pickett
McDonald
Striking2.7 / 4.7Volume5.5 / 4.0Grappling3.0 / 3.5Wrestling2.1 / 2.4Submission2.0 / 3.3Pressure3.9 / 6.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.7
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
5.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
Pickett
Strike Zones
McDonald
Pickett
Attacking
6HEAD0BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD1BODY0LEGS9 absorbed
McDonald
Attacking
8HEAD1BODY0LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD0BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Pickett targets the head (100% of attacks) — McDonald absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯McDonald targets the head (89% of attacks) — Pickett absorbs 89% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Pickett
RND
McDonald
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0

Pickett · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Marlon Vera
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson · 2017-03
L · Dec · R3
Urijah Faber
Decision
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
L · Sub · R1
Iuri Alcantara
Submission
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson · 2016-10
W · Dec · R3
Francisco Rivera
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bisping · 2016-02
L · KO · R2
Thomas Almeida
KO/TKO
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · 2015-07

McDonald · Last 5

L · KO · R1
John Lineker
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker · 2016-07
W · Sub · R2
Masanori Kanehara
Submission
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit · 2016-01
L · Sub · R2
Urijah Faber
Submission
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2 · 2013-12
W · Sub · R2
Brad Pickett
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonnen · 2013-08
L · Sub · R4
Renan Barao
Submission
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald · 2013-02

News & Media

Brad Pickett · Michael McDonald
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