UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady
London, United Kingdom
22 Mar 2025
Lightweight
VS
10%
Vucenic
90%
Duncan
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:42
Jordan
Jordan Vucenic
"The Epidemic"
13 – 4
5'10"73" reachOrthodox30 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 7
Chris
Chris Duncan
"The Problem"
15 – 3
Well-Rounded33 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'10"
CFR 60

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Duncan

Duncan is a strong favourite at 90% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 54 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Duncan has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 39 points.

Striking split: Duncan throws more volume but Vucenic connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Vucenic
Duncan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
73"+
Reach
71"
30+
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Vucenic
Duncan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
6.9
60.4
0.0
Performance Avg
53.2
0
Quality of Victory
39
0
Momentum Score
89
Vucenic
Duncan
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
2.5
57%
Strike Accuracy
50%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
4
1
Body
1
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
11Distance5
2Clinch1
2Ground0
Vucenic
Duncan
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
5.2
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
0
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Vucenic
Duncan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
86
76
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
2
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
2/17 fights
Chin rating based on
8/18 fights
Vucenic
Duncan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
89
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Vucenic
Duncan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
3
0
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Vucenic
Duncan
Striking0.0 / 1.5Volume0.0 / 5.5Grappling0.0 / 5.2Wrestling0.0 / 3.6Submission0.0 / 5.0Pressure0.0 / 5.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.5
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.5
Vucenic
Strike Zones
Duncan
Vucenic
Attacking
12HEAD1BODY2LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD1BODY1LEGS6 absorbed
Duncan
Attacking
4HEAD1BODY1LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD1BODY2LEGS15 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Vucenic targets the head (80% of attacks) — Duncan absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Duncan targets the head (67% of attacks) — Vucenic absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Vucenic
RND
Duncan
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Vucenic · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.6L4.0L2024-082025-03
WinLossTrend

Duncan · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.5W5.4W3.6L5.0W5.2W5.1W6.5W2.9L2023-032024-022025-032025-122026-04
WinLossTrend

Vucenic · Last 2

L · Sub · R2
Chris DuncanRating 4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Guram KutateladzeRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08

Duncan · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Renato MoicanoRating 2.9
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
W · Sub · R1
Terrance McKinneyRating 6.5
Submission
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R3
Mateusz RebeckiRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · 2025-08
W · Sub · R2
Jordan VucenicRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · Sub · R1
Bolaji OkiRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09

News & Media

Jordan Vucenic · Chris Duncan
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