UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
26 Sept 2020
Heavyweight
VS
92%
Espino
8%
Hughes
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:48
JE
Juan Espino
"El Guapo"
11 – 2
6'3"80" reachOrthodox45 yrsSubmission Hunter
CFR 27
JH
Jeff Hughes
"Lights Out"
10 – 4
Well-Rounded3-fight slide38 yrsOrthodox77" reach6'2"
CFR 2

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Espino

Espino is a strong favourite at 92% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 25 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Espino has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 77 points.

Espino has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Espino
Hughes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'2"
80"+
Reach
77"
45
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Espino
Hughes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
27.4
2.4
72.9
Performance Avg
0.0
77
Quality of Victory
0
78
Momentum Score
0
Espino
Hughes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.5
79%
Strike Accuracy
51%
1.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
0
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
0Clinch0
8Ground0
Espino
Hughes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
8.0
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
5.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
10.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Espino
Hughes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
84
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/13 fights
Chin rating based on
4/14 fights
Espino
Hughes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
0
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
Espino
Hughes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Espino
Hughes
Striking1.3 / 0.0Volume1.3 / 0.0Grappling8.0 / 0.0Wrestling5.6 / 0.0Submission10.0 / 0.0Pressure9.0 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
9.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
1.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Espino
Strike Zones
Hughes
Espino
Attacking
9HEAD1BODY0LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Hughes
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD1BODY0LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Espino targets the head (90% of attacks) — Hughes absorbs 90% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Espino
RND
Hughes
0/0R00/0

Espino · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.0W5.0W6.3L2018-112020-092021-04
WinLossTrend

Hughes · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0105.5L5.5L1.5L2019-032019-102020-09
WinLossTrend

Espino · Last 3

L · Dec · R3
Alexandr RomanovRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum · 2021-04
W · Sub · R1
Jeff HughesRating 5
Submission
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · 2020-09
W · Sub · R1
Justin FrazierRating 5
Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale · 2018-11

Hughes · Last 4

L · Sub · R1
Juan EspinoRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · 2020-09
L · Dec · R3
Raphael PessoaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren · 2019-10
Upcoming
Todd Duffee
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · 2019-09
L · Dec · R3
Maurice GreeneRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos · 2019-03

News & Media

Juan Espino · Jeff Hughes
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