METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 107: Penn vs Sanchez
Memphis, USA
12 Dec 2009
Lightweight
VS
47%
Wiman
53%
Nelson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Matt WimanwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Shane Nelson · UFC 107: Penn vs Sanchez
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Nelson
→
Actual result
Wiman wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Wiman at 47% vs Nelson at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Wiman has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Wiman's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
WimanNelson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Wiman
Nelson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
68"
Reach
+70"
42
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Wiman
Nelson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.4
17.2
46.3
Performance Avg
45.5
40
Quality of Victory
43
54
Momentum Score
44
Wiman
Nelson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
0.3
49%
Strike Accuracy
26%
3.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
3
1
Body
3
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance6
0Clinch0
5Ground0
Wiman
Nelson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
2.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Wiman
Nelson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
96
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
4
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/26 fights
Chin rating based on
4/23 fights
Wiman
Nelson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
54
44
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Wiman
Nelson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Wiman
Nelson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
3.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
3.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
WimanNelson
Strike Zones
Wiman
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedNelson
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Wiman targets the head (75% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Nelson targets the head (50% of attacks) — Wiman absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Wiman
RND
Nelson
0/0R00/0
Wiman · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Nelson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Wiman · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Jordan LeavittRating 3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori · 2020-12
L · Dec · R3
Joe SoleckiRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
L · KO · R3
Luis PenaRating 4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. The Korean Zombie · 2019-06
W · Dec · R3
Isaac Vallie-FlaggRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swanson · 2014-11
L · KO · R1
TJ GrantRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson · 2013-01
Nelson · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Matt WimanRating 5.5Decision
UFC 107: Penn vs Sanchez · 2009-12
L · Dec · R3
Aaron RileyRating 5.5Decision
UFC 101: Declaration · 2009-08
W · KO · R1
Aaron RileyRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 96: Jackson vs Jardine · 2009-03
W · Dec · R3
George RoopRating 4.5Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Nogueira vs. Team Mir Finale · 2008-12