UFC 107: Penn vs Sanchez
Memphis, USA
12 Dec 2009
Lightweight
VS
47%
Wiman
53%
Nelson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
MW
Matt Wiman
16 – 10
5'10"68" reachOrthodox42 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 15
SN
Shane Nelson
"Sugar"
16 – 7
Well-Rounded2-fight slide41 yrsSouthpaw70" reach5'9"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Nelson

This is a genuine toss-up — Wiman at 47% vs Nelson at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Wiman has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Wiman's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Wiman
Nelson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
68"
Reach
+70"
42
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Wiman
Nelson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.4
17.2
46.3
Performance Avg
45.5
40
Quality of Victory
43
54
Momentum Score
44
Wiman
Nelson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
0.3
49%
Strike Accuracy
26%
3.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
3
1
Body
3
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance6
0Clinch0
5Ground0
Wiman
Nelson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
2.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Wiman
Nelson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
96
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
4
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/26 fights
Chin rating based on
4/23 fights
Wiman
Nelson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
54
44
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Wiman
Nelson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Wiman
Nelson
Striking3.1 / 6.0Volume5.1 / 5.0Grappling3.6 / 1.2Wrestling2.5 / 0.8Submission3.0 / 0.0Pressure5.2 / 5.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
3.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
3.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
Wiman
Strike Zones
Nelson
Wiman
Attacking
9HEAD1BODY2LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD3BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Nelson
Attacking
3HEAD3BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD1BODY2LEGS12 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Wiman targets the head (75% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Nelson targets the head (50% of attacks) — Wiman absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Wiman
RND
Nelson
0/0R00/0

Wiman · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0102.8L5.0W4.5W5.0W5.2W5.9L5.5L4.5W5.0W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.0W1.5L4.5W4.0L6.2L3.0L2006-052008-122011-072019-062020-12
WinLossTrend

Nelson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W5.0W5.5L5.5L2008-122009-032009-082009-12
WinLossTrend

Wiman · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Jordan LeavittRating 3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori · 2020-12
L · Dec · R3
Joe SoleckiRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
L · KO · R3
Luis PenaRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. The Korean Zombie · 2019-06
W · Dec · R3
Isaac Vallie-FlaggRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swanson · 2014-11
L · KO · R1
TJ GrantRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson · 2013-01

Nelson · Last 4

L · Dec · R3
Matt WimanRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 107: Penn vs Sanchez · 2009-12
L · Dec · R3
Aaron RileyRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 101: Declaration · 2009-08
W · KO · R1
Aaron RileyRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 96: Jackson vs Jardine · 2009-03
W · Dec · R3
George RoopRating 4.5
Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Nogueira vs. Team Mir Finale · 2008-12

News & Media

Matt Wiman · Shane Nelson
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