UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier
Las Vegas, USA
17 Jun 2023
Flyweight
VS
87%
Hernandez
13%
Bondar
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 4:59
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Hernandez
Hernandez is a strong favourite at 87% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Hernandez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.
Hernandez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Hernandez's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Bondar has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Hernandez
Bondar
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'6"
67"
Reach
+69"
32+
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Hernandez
Bondar
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
31.3
4.6
32.1
Performance Avg
0.0
25
Quality of Victory
0
35
Momentum Score
0
Hernandez
Bondar
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.4
47%
Strike Accuracy
42%
0.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
36
Head
11
2
Body
6
2
Leg
4
RangeRange
27Distance21
6Clinch0
7Ground0
Hernandez
Bondar
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.6
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Hernandez
Bondar
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
64
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/15 fights
Chin rating based on
3/19 fights
Hernandez
Bondar
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
35
0
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Hernandez
Bondar
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Hernandez
Bondar
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
8.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
HernandezBondar
Strike Zones
Hernandez
Attacking
40 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedBondar
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
40 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Hernandez targets the head (90% of attacks) — Bondar absorbs 90% of strikes there
🎯Bondar targets the head (52% of attacks) — Hernandez absorbs 52% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Hernandez
RND
Bondar
0/0R00/0
Hernandez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Bondar · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.6WinLossTrend
Hernandez · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
HyunSung ParkRating 3.3Submission
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UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · 2023-06
Bondar · Last 3
L · Sub · R2
Ronaldo RodriguezRating 3.9Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
L · Dec · R3
Carlos HernandezRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · 2023-06
L · KO · R1
Malcolm GordonRating 1.5KO/TKO
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