UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker
Doha, Qatar
22 Nov 2025
Welterweight
VS
44%
Hermansson
56%
Orolbai
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:46
Jack
Jack Hermansson
"The Joker"
24 – 10
6'1"77" reachOrthodox37 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 54
Myktybek
Myktybek Orolbai
16 – 2
Well-Rounded3-fight win streak28 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'10"
CFR 67

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Orolbai

This is a genuine toss-up — Hermansson at 44% vs Orolbai at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Hermansson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Hermansson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Hermansson
Orolbai
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'10"
77"+
Reach
74"
37
Age
+28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Hermansson
Orolbai
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
53.8
67.1
48.1
Performance Avg
59.0
42
Quality of Victory
43
97
Momentum Score
92
Hermansson
Orolbai
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
0.9
50%
Strike Accuracy
47%
3.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.7
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
9
5
Body
3
5
Leg
3
RangeRange
17Distance13
2Clinch1
0Ground1
Hermansson
Orolbai
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
3.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.2
2.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Hermansson
Orolbai
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
98
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
5
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.4 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/34 fights
Chin rating based on
6/18 fights
Hermansson
Orolbai
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
97
92
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Hermansson
Orolbai
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
55%
60%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
2
5
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Hermansson
Orolbai
Striking3.9 / 3.7Volume4.8 / 4.9Grappling3.3 / 4.2Wrestling2.3 / 2.9Submission2.7 / 4.0Pressure5.6 / 6.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.7
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.2
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
2.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
Hermansson
Strike Zones
Orolbai
Hermansson
Attacking
9HEAD5BODY5LEGS19 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD3BODY3LEGS15 absorbed
Orolbai
Attacking
9HEAD3BODY3LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD5BODY5LEGS19 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Hermansson targets the head (47% of attacks) — Orolbai absorbs 47% of strikes there
🎯Orolbai targets the head (60% of attacks) — Hermansson absorbs 60% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Hermansson
RND
Orolbai
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Hermansson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.5W2.8L5.0W5.0W1.5L5.5W6.1W5.0W4.5W3.1L5.3W6.3L5.9W6.6L5.2W4.2L6.5W3.1L3.1L2016-092018-052020-072022-122025-11
WinLossTrend

Orolbai · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0107.1W5.3W6.1L5.2W5.9W5.2W2023-112024-052024-102025-062025-112026-03
WinLossTrend

Hermansson · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Myktybek OrolbaiRating 3.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
L · KO · R1
Gregory RodriguesRating 3.1
KO/TKO
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Joe PyferRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · KO · R2
Roman DolidzeRating 4.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · Dec · R3
Chris CurtisRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07

Orolbai · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Chris CurtisRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
W · KO · R1
Jack HermanssonRating 5.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
W · Sub · R1
Tofiq MusayevRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Mateusz RebeckiRating 6.1
Decision
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Elves BrenerRating 5.3
Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05

News & Media

Jack Hermansson · Myktybek Orolbai
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