UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn
Phoenix, USA
15 Jan 2017
Welterweight
VS
71%
McGee
29%
Saunders
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: McGee
McGee is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 23 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: McGee throws more volume but Saunders connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
McGee's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Saunders has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
McGee
Saunders
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'2"
75"
Reach
+77"
41+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
McGee
Saunders
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
38.7
15.6
40.1
Performance Avg
46.4
36
Quality of Victory
46
50
Momentum Score
50
McGee
Saunders
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.5
39%
Strike Accuracy
55%
0.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
0 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
3
1
Body
7
5
Leg
0
RangeRange
14Distance10
0Clinch0
5Ground0
McGee
Saunders
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
2.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
McGee
Saunders
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
7
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.9 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/37 fights
Chin rating based on
19/35 fights
McGee
Saunders
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
50
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
McGee
Saunders
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
27%
67%
0
KO / TKO Wins
3
3
Submission Wins
3
8
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
McGee
Saunders
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
3.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
2.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
2.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
3.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
6.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
McGeeSaunders
Strike Zones
McGee
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedSaunders
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯McGee targets the head (68% of attacks) — Saunders absorbs 68% of strikes there
🎯Saunders targets the body (70% of attacks) — McGee absorbs 70% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
McGee
RND
Saunders
0/0R00/0
McGee · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Saunders · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
McGee · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Michael ChiesaRating 6.3Decision
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W · Sub · R1
Tim MeansRating 5.1Submission
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L · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · 2024-04
L · KO · R1
Matt BrownRating 1.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05
L · KO · R1
Jeremiah WellsRating 2.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett · 2022-06
Saunders · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Matt BrownRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · 2019-12
L · KO · R2
Takashi SatoRating 2.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson · 2019-04
L · KO · R1
Lyman GoodRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · 2018-11
L · Sub · R2
Sergio MoraesRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
W · KO · R1
Jake EllenbergerRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · 2018-06