UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song
Seattle, USA
22 Feb 2025
Featherweight
VS
59%
Silva
41%
Baghdasaryan
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:15
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Silva
This is a genuine toss-up — Silva at 59% vs Baghdasaryan at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Silva has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Silva has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Baghdasaryan has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Silva
Baghdasaryan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'9"
69"
Reach
+70"
29+
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Silva
Baghdasaryan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
66.7
45.5
61.7
Performance Avg
45.0
46
Quality of Victory
35
87
Momentum Score
48
Silva
Baghdasaryan
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
1.2
57%
Strike Accuracy
50%
6.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.5
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
5
7
Body
0
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
11Distance7
0Clinch0
7Ground0
Silva
Baghdasaryan
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.7
/ 10
1.6
/ 10
1.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
1.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Silva
Baghdasaryan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
66
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/20 fights
Chin rating based on
6/11 fights
Silva
Baghdasaryan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
87
48
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
W · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Silva
Baghdasaryan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
33%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Silva
Baghdasaryan
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.5
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.1
3.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.5
SilvaBaghdasaryan
Strike Zones
Silva
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedBaghdasaryan
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Silva targets the head (61% of attacks) — Baghdasaryan absorbs 61% of strikes there
🎯Baghdasaryan targets the head (71% of attacks) — Silva absorbs 71% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Silva
RND
Baghdasaryan
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Silva · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Baghdasaryan · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Silva · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Arnold AllenRating 5.9Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
L · KO · R2
Diego LopesRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
W · Sub · R2
Bryce MitchellRating 6.3Submission
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · KO · R1
Melsik BaghdasaryanRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
W · R3
Drew DoberRating 5.7UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
Baghdasaryan · Last 5
Upcoming
Murtazali MagomedovUFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
L · KO · R1
Jean SilvaRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Tucker LutzRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · 2023-07
L · Sub · R2
Josh CulibaoRating 3.1Submission
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · 2023-02
W · Dec · R3
Bruno SouzaRating 4.5Decision
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11