★ Championship Bout · Heavyweight
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
Anaheim, USA
23 Oct 2010
Heavyweight
VS
48%
Lesnar
52%
Velasquez
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:12
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Velasquez
This is a genuine toss-up — Lesnar at 48% vs Velasquez at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Lesnar has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Striking split: Velasquez throws more volume but Lesnar connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Lesnar's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Velasquez has a chin rating of 44 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Lesnar
Velasquez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'1"
81"+
Reach
77"
48
Age
+43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Lesnar
Velasquez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
23.6
25.8
69.0
Performance Avg
69.4
77
Quality of Victory
62
66
Momentum Score
100
Lesnar
Velasquez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
2.6
70%
Strike Accuracy
59%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.9
2 KOs
KO Finishes
10 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
30
2
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance11
4Clinch4
0Ground16
Lesnar
Velasquez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.6
/ 10
0.4
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.3
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Lesnar
Velasquez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
44
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8 fights
Chin rating based on
15/17 fights
Lesnar
Velasquez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
66
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
Upcoming
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R5
W · KO · R1
Lesnar
Velasquez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
83%
2
KO / TKO Wins
10
1
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lesnar
Velasquez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.9
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.4
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.3
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.2
3.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
LesnarVelasquez
Strike Zones
Lesnar
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedVelasquez
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lesnar targets the head (78% of attacks) — Velasquez absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Velasquez targets the head (97% of attacks) — Lesnar absorbs 97% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lesnar
RND
Velasquez
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0
Lesnar · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.5WinLossTrend
Velasquez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Lesnar · Last 5
Upcoming
Mark HuntUFC 200: Tate vs Nunes · 2016-07
L · KO · R1
Alistair OvereemRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem · 2011-12
L · KO · R1
Cain VelasquezRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez · 2010-10
W · Sub · R2
Shane CarwinRating 5.1Submission
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin · 2010-07
W · KO · R2
Frank MirRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC 100 · 2009-07
Velasquez · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Francis NgannouRating 1.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
W · KO · R1
Travis BrowneRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes · 2016-07
L · Sub · R3
Fabricio WerdumRating 2.8Submission
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum · 2015-06
W · KO · R5
Junior Dos SantosRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3 · 2013-10
W · KO · R1
Antonio SilvaRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2 · 2013-05