UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
Las Vegas, USA
6 Oct 2018
Lightweight
VS
71%
Ferguson
29%
Pettis
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Ferguson
Ferguson is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Ferguson throws more volume but Pettis connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Ferguson's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Pettis has a chin rating of 12 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Ferguson
Pettis
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
76"+
Reach
72"
42
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ferguson
Pettis
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.2
18.8
54.2
Performance Avg
52.6
49
Quality of Victory
51
52
Momentum Score
72
Ferguson
Pettis
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.2
47%
Strike Accuracy
52%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.8
3 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
45
Head
24
13
Body
3
7
Leg
0
RangeRange
57Distance20
4Clinch2
4Ground5
Ferguson
Pettis
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.8
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ferguson
Pettis
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
12
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.7 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/37 fights
Chin rating based on
20/34 fights
Ferguson
Pettis
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
72
8-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Ferguson
Pettis
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
64%
3
KO / TKO Wins
3
6
Submission Wins
4
6
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ferguson
Pettis
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.8
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.6
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
FergusonPettis
Strike Zones
Ferguson
Attacking
65 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedPettis
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
65 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ferguson targets the head (69% of attacks) — Pettis absorbs 69% of strikes there
🎯Pettis targets the head (89% of attacks) — Ferguson absorbs 89% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ferguson
RND
Pettis
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Ferguson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Pettis · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Ferguson · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Michael ChiesaRating 2.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Paddy PimblettRating 7.2Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R3
King GreenRating 4.7Submission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Sub · R4
Nate DiazRating 3.4Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · KO · R2
Michael ChandlerRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
Pettis · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · 2020-12
W · Dec · R3
Donald CerroneRating 4.5Decision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Sub · R2
Diego FerreiraRating 3.8Submission
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01
L · Dec · R3
Nate DiazRating 5.5Decision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
W · KO · R2
Stephen ThompsonRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03