UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez
Houston, USA
21 Feb 2026
Welterweight
VS
54%
Brahimaj
46%
Soriano
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Brahimaj
This is a genuine toss-up — Brahimaj at 54% vs Soriano at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Brahimaj has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Striking split: Soriano throws more volume but Brahimaj connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Soriano has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Brahimaj
Soriano
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
72"
Reach
72"
33
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Brahimaj
Soriano
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
65.2
54.8
54.8
Performance Avg
52.0
54
Quality of Victory
44
85
Momentum Score
64
Brahimaj
Soriano
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
2.0
59%
Strike Accuracy
55%
3.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
13
1
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance9
1Clinch7
0Ground0
Brahimaj
Soriano
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
6.4
/ 10
1.0
/ 10
4.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.7
8.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
4
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Brahimaj
Soriano
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
62
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/19 fights
Chin rating based on
11/17 fights
Brahimaj
Soriano
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
85
64
Current form
4-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Brahimaj
Soriano
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
57%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
4
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Brahimaj
Soriano
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.0
6.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
4.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
8.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.9
1.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
BrahimajSoriano
Strike Zones
Brahimaj
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedSoriano
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Brahimaj targets the head (50% of attacks) — Soriano absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Soriano targets the head (81% of attacks) — Brahimaj absorbs 81% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Brahimaj
RND
Soriano
0/0R00/0
Brahimaj · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Soriano · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Brahimaj · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Punahele SorianoRating 6.5Decision
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Soriano · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Ramiz BrahimajRating 6Decision
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W · Dec · R3
Nikolay VeretennikovRating 4.9Decision
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