UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
Chicago, USA
9 Jun 2018
Light Heavyweight
VS
21%
Evans
79%
Smith
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:53
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Smith
Smith is a strong favourite at 79% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 43 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Smith has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Evans's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Smith has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Evans
Smith
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'4"
75"
Reach
+76"
46
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Evans
Smith
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.3
58.3
53.1
Performance Avg
50.7
46
Quality of Victory
50
25
Momentum Score
100
Evans
Smith
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.3
42%
Strike Accuracy
52%
5.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.9
6 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
4
0
Body
0
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
0Distance2
1Clinch2
0Ground2
Evans
Smith
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
1.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Evans
Smith
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
6
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
23/27 fights
Chin rating based on
25/60 fights
Evans
Smith
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
25
100
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
Evans
Smith
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
43%
77%
6
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
5
8
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Evans
Smith
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.9
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.9
4.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.9
5.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.3
EvansSmith
Strike Zones
Evans
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedSmith
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Evans targets the head (100% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Smith targets the head (67% of attacks) — Evans absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Evans
RND
Smith
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Evans · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Smith · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Evans · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Anthony SmithRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 · 2018-06
L · Dec · R3
Sam AlveyRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno · 2017-08
L · Dec · R3
Daniel KellyRating 5.5Decision
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · 2017-03
L · KO · R1
Glover TeixeiraRating 1.9KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans · 2016-04
L · Dec · R3
Ryan BaderRating 5.5Decision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
Smith · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Zhang MingyangRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · KO · R2
Dominick ReyesRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Roman DolidzeRating 6.9Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · Sub · R1
Vitor PetrinoRating 6.1Submission
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · KO · R3
Khalil Rountree Jr.Rating 4.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12