UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
Anaheim, USA
17 Feb 2024
Welterweight
VS
46%
Neal
54%
Garry
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Garry
This is a genuine toss-up — Neal at 46% vs Garry at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Neal has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Striking split: Neal throws more volume but Garry connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Neal's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Neal
Garry
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'3"
75"+
Reach
74"
35
Age
+28
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Neal
Garry
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.8
64.8
51.7
Performance Avg
57.1
48
Quality of Victory
35
72
Momentum Score
100
Neal
Garry
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
2.0
55%
Strike Accuracy
59%
7.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.8
5 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
13
4
Body
6
3
Leg
5
RangeRange
11Distance23
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Neal
Garry
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.6
/ 10
1.7
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.2
1.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Neal
Garry
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
98
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/24 fights
Chin rating based on
11/18 fights
Neal
Garry
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
72
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Neal
Garry
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
30%
5
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Neal
Garry
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.8
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
3.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.4
NealGarry
Strike Zones
Neal
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedGarry
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Neal targets the head (36% of attacks) — Garry absorbs 36% of strikes there
🎯Garry targets the head (54% of attacks) — Neal absorbs 54% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Neal
RND
Garry
0/0R00/0
Neal · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Garry · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.7WinLossTrend
Neal · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Uros MedicRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · KO · R1
Carlos PratesRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · KO · R1
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Ian Machado GarryRating 7Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · Sub · R3
Shavkat RakhmonovRating 6.1Submission
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
Garry · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Belal MuhammadRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
W · Dec · R5
Carlos PratesRating 6.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · Dec · R5
Shavkat RakhmonovRating 7.6Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Michael PageRating 5.3Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · Dec · R3
Geoff NealRating 5.5Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02