UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg
Mexico City, Mexico
29 Mar 2025
Lightweight
VS
56%
Torres
44%
Dober
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:45
Manuel
Manuel Torres
"El Loco"
17 – 3
5'10"73" reachSwitch31 yrs2-fight win streakKnockout Artist
CFR 77
Drew
Drew Dober
29 – 15
Knockout Artist2-fight win streak37 yrsSouthpaw70" reach5'8"
CFR 60

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Torres

This is a genuine toss-up — Torres at 56% vs Dober at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Torres has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Dober has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Torres
Dober
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'8"
73"+
Reach
70"
31+
Age
37
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
Torres
Dober
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
76.9
59.9
68.6
Performance Avg
53.2
59
Quality of Victory
50
100
Momentum Score
100
Torres
Dober
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
3.4
1.9
60%
Strike Accuracy
43%
9.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.5
4 KOs
KO Finishes
11 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
21
Head
2
2
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
7Distance3
0Clinch0
16Ground0
Torres
Dober
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.0
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Torres
Dober
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
0
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/20 fights
Chin rating based on
27/44 fights
Torres
Dober
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · R3
L · Dec · R3
Torres
Dober
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
80%
4
KO / TKO Wins
11
1
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Torres
Dober
Striking9.7 / 8.5Volume1.7 / 2.8Grappling1.6 / 1.0Wrestling1.1 / 0.7Submission2.0 / 0.7Pressure9.5 / 7.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.5
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.7
9.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.3
1.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.8
Torres
Strike Zones
Dober
Torres
Attacking
21HEAD2BODY0LEGS23 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY1LEGS3 absorbed
Dober
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY1LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
21HEAD2BODY0LEGS23 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Torres targets the head (91% of attacks) — Dober absorbs 91% of strikes there
🎯Dober targets the head (67% of attacks) — Torres absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Torres
RND
Dober
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Torres · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.0W5.6W6.3W2.8L6.2W6.5W2022-052023-062024-022024-092025-032025-12
WinLossTrend

Dober · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5L5.5L5.0W1.5L4.5W5.0W2.8L5.0W4.5W4.5W3.7L5.0W5.7W6.1W6.0L5.5L6.5W5.5W6.0W1.7L5.1W6.3L7.1L3.6L5.5W5.3W2013-112017-072021-032024-022026-03
WinLossTrend

Torres · Last 5

Upcoming
Rafael Fiziev
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06
W · KO · R1
Grant DawsonRating 6.5
KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · KO · R1
Drew DoberRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · KO · R1
Ignacio BahamondesRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
W · Sub · R1
Chris DuncanRating 6.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02

Dober · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Michael JohnsonRating 5.3
KO/TKO
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · KO · R3
Kyle PrepolecRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Manuel TorresRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · R3
Jean SilvaRating 7.1
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
L · Dec · R3
Renato MoicanoRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · 2024-02

News & Media

Manuel Torres · Drew Dober
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