METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
Las Vegas, USA
12 Dec 2015
Welterweight
VS
27%
Maia
73%
Nelson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Demian MaiawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Gunnar Nelson · UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Nelson
→
Actual result
Maia wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Nelson is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 36 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Maia's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nelson has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MaiaNelson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Maia
Nelson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'11"
72"
Reach
72"
48
Age
+38
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
Maia
Nelson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.6
56.8
50.8
Performance Avg
52.8
40
Quality of Victory
46
100
Momentum Score
61
Maia
Nelson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.8
/ 10
1.3
/ 10
5.8
Style: Pressure
7.5
5.0
Style: Volume
2.9
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
0
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
0Clinch0
11Ground0
Maia
Nelson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.1
/ 10
6.9
/ 10
3.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
4.8
5.0
Submission Style (/10)
8.0
11
Submission wins
8
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Maia
Nelson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
68
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
33/39 fights
Chin rating based on
16/25 fights
Maia
Nelson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
61
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Maia
Nelson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
55%
80%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
11
Submission Wins
8
10
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Maia
Nelson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.3
5.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.9
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.8
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
8.0
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.5
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
MaiaNelson
Strike Zones
Maia
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedNelson
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Maia targets the head (92% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 92% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Maia
RND
Nelson
0/0R00/0
Maia · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Belal MuhammadDecision
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W · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinDecision
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W · Sub · R1
Lyman GoodSubmission
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Nelson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Kevin HollandDecision
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W · Sub · R1
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W · Dec · R3
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L · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsDecision
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L · Dec · R3
Leon EdwardsDecision
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