METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
Las Vegas, USA
12 Dec 2015
Welterweight
VS
36%
Maia
64%
Nelson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Demian MaiawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Gunnar Nelson · UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Nelson
→
Actual result
Maia wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Nelson holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Maia has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Nelson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Maia's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nelson has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MaiaNelson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Maia
Nelson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'11"
72"
Reach
72"
48
Age
+37
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
Maia
Nelson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
32.4
56.8
50.8
Performance Avg
52.8
40
Quality of Victory
46
100
Momentum Score
61
Maia
Nelson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.5
0.8
41%
Strike Accuracy
69%
1.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
0
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
0Clinch0
11Ground0
Maia
Nelson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
5.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
6.9
3.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Maia
Nelson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
68
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
33/39 fights
Chin rating based on
16/25 fights
Maia
Nelson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
61
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Maia
Nelson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
55%
80%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
11
Submission Wins
8
10
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Maia
Nelson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.3
5.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.9
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.8
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
8.0
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.5
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
MaiaNelson
Strike Zones
Maia
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedNelson
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Maia targets the head (92% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 92% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Maia
RND
Nelson
0/0R00/0
Maia · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Nelson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Maia · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
L · KO · R1
Gilbert BurnsRating 1.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · 2020-03
W · Sub · R3
Ben AskrenRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren · 2019-10
W · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · 2019-06
W · Sub · R1
Lyman GoodRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · 2019-02
Nelson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Kevin HollandRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · Sub · R1
Bryan BarberenaRating 5.4Submission
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
W · Dec · R3
Takashi SatoRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · 2022-03
L · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · 2019-09
L · Dec · R3
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · 2019-03