UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
Las Vegas, USA
12 Dec 2015
Welterweight
VS
36%
Maia
64%
Nelson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
DM
Demian Maia
28 – 11
6'1"72" reachSouthpaw48 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 32
Gunnar
Gunnar Nelson
"Gunni"
19 – 6
Submission Hunter37 yrsSwitch72" reach5'11"
CFR 57

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Nelson

Nelson holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Maia has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Nelson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Maia's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Nelson has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Maia
Nelson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'11"
72"
Reach
72"
48
Age
+37
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
Maia
Nelson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
32.4
56.8
50.8
Performance Avg
52.8
40
Quality of Victory
46
100
Momentum Score
61
Maia
Nelson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.5
0.8
41%
Strike Accuracy
69%
1.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
0
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
0Clinch0
11Ground0
Maia
Nelson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
5.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
6.9
3.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Maia
Nelson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
68
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
33/39 fights
Chin rating based on
16/25 fights
Maia
Nelson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
61
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Maia
Nelson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
55%
80%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
11
Submission Wins
8
10
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Maia
Nelson
Striking1.8 / 1.3Volume5.0 / 2.9Grappling5.1 / 6.9Wrestling3.6 / 4.8Submission5.0 / 8.0Pressure5.8 / 7.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.3
5.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.9
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.8
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
8.0
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.5
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
Maia
Strike Zones
Nelson
Maia
Attacking
11HEAD1BODY0LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Nelson
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD1BODY0LEGS12 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Maia targets the head (92% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 92% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Maia
RND
Nelson
0/0R00/0

Maia · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.0W5.4W5.5W5.0W5.0W1.5L4.5W5.5L4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W6.3L5.0W5.0W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.5W5.9W5.6W5.9W5.0W4.5W5.5L6.8L6.6L5.0W4.5W5.2W1.7L6.6L2007-102010-122014-052018-052021-06
WinLossTrend

Nelson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.0W4.5W5.0W5.6W5.5L5.0W5.5L5.2W5.2W2.0L5.2W6.6L5.7L4.7W5.4W6.1L2012-092014-102017-032019-092025-03
WinLossTrend

Maia · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
L · KO · R1
Gilbert BurnsRating 1.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · 2020-03
W · Sub · R3
Ben AskrenRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren · 2019-10
W · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · 2019-06
W · Sub · R1
Lyman GoodRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · 2019-02

Nelson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Kevin HollandRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · Sub · R1
Bryan BarberenaRating 5.4
Submission
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
W · Dec · R3
Takashi SatoRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · 2022-03
L · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · 2019-09
L · Dec · R3
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · 2019-03

News & Media

Demian Maia · Gunnar Nelson
← Back to fights