METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira
Las Vegas, USA
7 Feb 2026
Middleweight
VS
61%
Oleksiejczuk
39%
Barriault
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Michal OleksiejczukwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Marc-Andre Barriault · UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Oleksiejczuk
→
Actual result
Oleksiejczuk wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Oleksiejczuk holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Barriault has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Oleksiejczuk has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Oleksiejczuk's chin rating of 36 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Barriault has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
OleksiejczukBarriault
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Oleksiejczuk
Barriault
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'1"
74"
Reach
74"
31+
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Oleksiejczuk
Barriault
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
54.6
35.6
55.3
Performance Avg
41.9
53
Quality of Victory
45
52
Momentum Score
13
Oleksiejczuk
Barriault
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.5
2.5
54%
Strike Accuracy
50%
9.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.8
8 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
32
Head
20
20
Body
5
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
52Distance19
0Clinch6
0Ground0
Oleksiejczuk
Barriault
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.1
0.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Oleksiejczuk
Barriault
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
36
10
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
5
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/31 fights
Chin rating based on
18/28 fights
Oleksiejczuk
Barriault
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
13
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Oleksiejczuk
Barriault
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
67%
8
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Oleksiejczuk
Barriault
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
0.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
7.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
2.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
OleksiejczukBarriault
Strike Zones
Oleksiejczuk
Attacking
52 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedBarriault
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
52 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Oleksiejczuk targets the head (62% of attacks) — Barriault absorbs 62% of strikes there
🎯Barriault targets the head (80% of attacks) — Oleksiejczuk absorbs 80% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Oleksiejczuk
RND
Barriault
0/0R00/0
Oleksiejczuk · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Barriault · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Oleksiejczuk · Last 5
Upcoming
Abus MagomedovUFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Marc-Andre BarriaultRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
W · KO · R1
Gerald MeerschaertRating 6.1KO/TKO
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · KO · R1
Sedriques DumasRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
Shara MagomedovRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
Barriault · Last 5
Upcoming
Brad TavaresUFC Fight Night · 2026-07
L · Dec · R3
Michal OleksiejczukRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Shara MagomedovRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
W · KO · R1
Bruno SilvaRating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
L · KO · R1
Dustin StoltzfusRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11