METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira
Las Vegas, USA
7 Feb 2026
Middleweight
VS
60%
Oleksiejczuk
40%
Barriault
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Michal OleksiejczukwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Marc-Andre Barriault · UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Oleksiejczuk
→
Actual result
Oleksiejczuk wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Oleksiejczuk holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Barriault has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Oleksiejczuk's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Barriault has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
OleksiejczukBarriault
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Oleksiejczuk
Barriault
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'1"
74"
Reach
74"
31+
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Oleksiejczuk
Barriault
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.9
35.6
54.0
Performance Avg
41.9
53
Quality of Victory
45
52
Momentum Score
13
Oleksiejczuk
Barriault
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
9.1
/ 10
5.8
/ 10
7.3
Style: Pressure
5.8
2.7
Style: Volume
3.4
8 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
3 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
32
Head
20
20
Body
5
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
52Distance19
0Clinch6
0Ground0
Oleksiejczuk
Barriault
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.5
/ 10
2.1
/ 10
0.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.5
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.7
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Oleksiejczuk
Barriault
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
10
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
6
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/31 fights
Chin rating based on
18/28 fights
Oleksiejczuk
Barriault
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
13
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Oleksiejczuk
Barriault
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
67%
8
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Oleksiejczuk
Barriault
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
0.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
2.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
OleksiejczukBarriault
Strike Zones
Oleksiejczuk
Attacking
52 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedBarriault
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
52 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Oleksiejczuk targets the head (62% of attacks) — Barriault absorbs 62% of strikes there
🎯Barriault targets the head (80% of attacks) — Oleksiejczuk absorbs 80% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Oleksiejczuk
RND
Barriault
0/0R00/0
Oleksiejczuk · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Abus MagomedovSubmission
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Barriault · Last 5
Upcoming
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L · Dec · R3
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UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
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Bruno SilvaKO/TKO
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L · KO · R1
Dustin StoltzfusKO/TKO
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