METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
Seattle, USA
27 Jul 2013
Lightweight
VS
59%
Chiesa
41%
Masvidal
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 4:59
★ Official Result
Jorge MasvidalwinsSubmissionR2 · 4:59
def. Michael Chiesa · UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Chiesa
→
Actual result
Masvidal wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Chiesa at 59% vs Masvidal at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Chiesa's chin rating of 36 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Masvidal has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
ChiesaMasvidal
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Chiesa
Masvidal
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'11"
75"+
Reach
74"
38+
Age
41
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Chiesa
Masvidal
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.7
35.2
53.3
Performance Avg
47.0
43
Quality of Victory
42
50
Momentum Score
43
Chiesa
Masvidal
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.4
/ 10
5.3
/ 10
6.3
Style: Pressure
5.1
4.6
Style: Volume
4.4
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
5 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
8
0
Body
4
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance5
0Clinch0
0Ground7
Chiesa
Masvidal
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.8
/ 10
1.7
/ 10
4.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.2
6.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.8
9
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Chiesa
Masvidal
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
36
60
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
5
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/27 fights
Chin rating based on
22/52 fights
Chiesa
Masvidal
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
43
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R5
W · R3
Chiesa
Masvidal
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
5
9
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Chiesa
Masvidal
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.3
5.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
4.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
6.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.8
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.1
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.4
ChiesaMasvidal
Strike Zones
Chiesa
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedMasvidal
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Chiesa targets the head (50% of attacks) — Masvidal absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Masvidal targets the head (67% of attacks) — Chiesa absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Chiesa
RND
Masvidal
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Chiesa · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Niko PriceSubmission
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Max GriffinSubmission
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W · Sub · R1
Tony FergusonSubmission
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L · Sub · R1
Kevin HollandSubmission
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Masvidal · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsDecision
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · 2023-04
L · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonDecision
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · KO · R2
Kamaru UsmanKO/TKO
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanDecision
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · 2020-07
W · R3
Nate DiazUFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11