METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
Seattle, USA
27 Jul 2013
Lightweight
VS
59%
Chiesa
41%
Masvidal
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 4:59
★ Official Result
Jorge MasvidalwinsSubmissionR2 · 4:59
def. Michael Chiesa · UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Chiesa
→
Actual result
Masvidal wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Chiesa at 59% vs Masvidal at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Masvidal has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Chiesa's chin rating of 36 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Masvidal has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
ChiesaMasvidal
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Chiesa
Masvidal
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'11"
75"+
Reach
74"
38+
Age
41
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Chiesa
Masvidal
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.7
35.2
53.3
Performance Avg
47.0
43
Quality of Victory
42
50
Momentum Score
43
Chiesa
Masvidal
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.7
1.2
41%
Strike Accuracy
49%
1.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.3
0 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
8
0
Body
4
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance5
0Clinch0
0Ground7
Chiesa
Masvidal
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
5.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.7
4.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Chiesa
Masvidal
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
36
60
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
5
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/27 fights
Chin rating based on
22/52 fights
Chiesa
Masvidal
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
43
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R5
W · R3
Chiesa
Masvidal
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
5
9
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Chiesa
Masvidal
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.3
5.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
4.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
6.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.8
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.1
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.4
ChiesaMasvidal
Strike Zones
Chiesa
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedMasvidal
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Chiesa targets the head (50% of attacks) — Masvidal absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Masvidal targets the head (67% of attacks) — Chiesa absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Chiesa
RND
Masvidal
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Chiesa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Masvidal · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Chiesa · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Niko PriceRating 5.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Court McGeeRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
W · Sub · R3
Max GriffinRating 6.1Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Sub · R1
Tony FergusonRating 5.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Sub · R1
Kevin HollandRating 2.1Submission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
Masvidal · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7Decision
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · 2023-04
L · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 6.8Decision
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · KO · R2
Kamaru UsmanRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6Decision
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · 2020-07
W · R3
Nate DiazRating 4.3UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11