UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
Seattle, USA
27 Jul 2013
Lightweight
VS
59%
Chiesa
41%
Masvidal
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 4:59
Michael
Michael Chiesa
"Maverick"
20 – 7
6'1"75" reachSouthpaw38 yrs4-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 51
JM
Jorge Masvidal
"Gamebred"
35 – 17
Well-Rounded4-fight slide41 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'11"
CFR 35

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Chiesa

This is a genuine toss-up — Chiesa at 59% vs Masvidal at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Masvidal has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Chiesa's chin rating of 36 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Masvidal has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Chiesa
Masvidal
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'11"
75"+
Reach
74"
38+
Age
41
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Chiesa
Masvidal
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.7
35.2
53.3
Performance Avg
47.0
43
Quality of Victory
42
50
Momentum Score
43
Chiesa
Masvidal
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
1.2
41%
Strike Accuracy
49%
1.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.3
0 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
8
0
Body
4
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance5
0Clinch0
0Ground7
Chiesa
Masvidal
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
5.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.7
4.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Chiesa
Masvidal
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
36
60
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
5
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/27 fights
Chin rating based on
22/52 fights
Chiesa
Masvidal
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
43
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R5
W · R3
Chiesa
Masvidal
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
5
9
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Chiesa
Masvidal
Striking1.4 / 5.3Volume4.6 / 4.4Grappling5.8 / 1.7Wrestling4.0 / 1.2Submission6.0 / 0.8Pressure6.3 / 5.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.3
5.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
4.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
6.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.8
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.1
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.4
Chiesa
Strike Zones
Masvidal
Chiesa
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY1LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD4BODY0LEGS12 absorbed
Masvidal
Attacking
8HEAD4BODY0LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY1LEGS2 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Chiesa targets the head (50% of attacks) — Masvidal absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Masvidal targets the head (67% of attacks) — Chiesa absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Chiesa
RND
Masvidal
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Chiesa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.0W5.2W2.8L5.2W4.5W4.8L4.5W5.7W6.2W1.5L2.8L5.2W4.5W4.7W5.1W3.0L6.6L2.1L5.5W6.1W4.7W5.7W2012-062015-042019-072024-082026-03
WinLossTrend

Masvidal · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.6W6.0W5.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5L5.0W5.5L5.5L4.5W5.0W5.2W5.5L6.1L5.1W5.0W4.3W6.6L3.2L6.8L5.7L2013-042015-042017-012020-072023-04
WinLossTrend

Chiesa · Last 5

W · Sub · R1
Niko PriceRating 5.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Court McGeeRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
W · Sub · R3
Max GriffinRating 6.1
Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Sub · R1
Tony FergusonRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Sub · R1
Kevin HollandRating 2.1
Submission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07

Masvidal · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7
Decision
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · 2023-04
L · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · KO · R2
Kamaru UsmanRating 3.2
KO/TKO
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · 2020-07
W · R3
Nate DiazRating 4.3
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11

News & Media

Michael Chiesa · Jorge Masvidal
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