UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
Las Vegas, USA
11 Dec 2021
Middleweight
VS
29%
Wright
71%
Silva
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:28
JW
CFR 25
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Silva
Silva is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 37 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Silva has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Wright has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Wright's chin rating of 20 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Silva has a chin rating of 46 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Wright
Silva
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'0"
77"+
Reach
74"
34+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Wright
Silva
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
25.0
61.6
38.4
Performance Avg
49.0
45
Quality of Victory
58
13
Momentum Score
91
Wright
Silva
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
1.9
60%
Strike Accuracy
53%
5.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
18
10
Body
0
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
11Distance8
9Clinch3
0Ground8
Wright
Silva
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
🥊
Pure striking matchup
Neither fighter has significant grappling in their history
0
Submission wins
0
Wright
Silva
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
20
46
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/17 fights
Chin rating based on
11/36 fights
Wright
Silva
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
13
91
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Wright
Silva
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Wright
Silva
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.1
0.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
WrightSilva
Strike Zones
Wright
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedSilva
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Wright targets the body (50% of attacks) — Silva absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Silva targets the head (95% of attacks) — Wright absorbs 95% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Wright
RND
Silva
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Wright · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.7WinLossTrend
Silva · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Wright · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Zac PaugaRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · 2023-02
L · KO · R2
Dusko TodorovicRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · 2022-10
L · Sub · R1
Marc-Andre BarriaultRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04
L · KO · R1
Bruno SilvaRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · 2021-12
W · KO · R1
Jamie PickettRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · 2021-05
Silva · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Marc-Andre BarriaultRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Ismail NaurdievRating 6Decision
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Chris WeidmanRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03
L · Dec · R3
Shara MagomedovRating 7Decision
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
L · Sub · R1
Brendan AllenRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria · 2023-06