UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo
Des Moines, USA
3 May 2025
Lightweight
VS
45%
Stephens
55%
Jones
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Jeremy
Jeremy Stephens
"Lil' Heathen"
29 – 23
5'9"71" reachOrthodox40 yrs7-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 45
Mason
Mason Jones
"The Dragon"
18 – 2
Well-Rounded3-fight win streak31 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'10"
CFR 54

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Jones

This is a genuine toss-up — Stephens at 45% vs Jones at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Jones has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Stephens's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Stephens
Jones
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
71"
Reach
+74"
40
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Stephens
Jones
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.0
54.0
41.1
Performance Avg
46.2
40
Quality of Victory
33
76
Momentum Score
80
Stephens
Jones
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
2.0
42%
Strike Accuracy
45%
5.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.8
7 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
3
0
Body
1
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
2Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground2
Stephens
Jones
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Stephens
Jones
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
96
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
4
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
36/52 fights
Chin rating based on
7/20 fights
Stephens
Jones
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
80
7-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Stephens
Jones
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
47%
25%
7
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Stephens
Jones
Striking5.5 / 3.8Volume4.6 / 7.3Grappling1.1 / 1.8Wrestling0.8 / 1.3Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure4.5 / 3.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.8
1.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.8
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.3
Stephens
Strike Zones
Jones
Stephens
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY1LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD1BODY1LEGS5 absorbed
Jones
Attacking
3HEAD1BODY1LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY1LEGS2 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Stephens targets the head (50% of attacks) — Jones absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Jones targets the head (60% of attacks) — Stephens absorbs 60% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Stephens
RND
Jones
0/0R00/0

Stephens · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0102.8L4.5W5.2W5.5L5.7W2.8L5.5L4.0W4.5W5.5L5.5W4.5W5.5L5.5L1.5L4.5W5.0W5.0W6.0L6.9L5.5W6.6L4.5W5.5L6.3L4.5W6.9W5.2W2.0L5.5L7.1L3.2L2.6L6.5L2.2L2007-052010-092014-062018-022026-05
WinLossTrend

Jones · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0106.6L5.3W6.7L5.0W5.2W5.8W2021-012021-102022-072025-052025-092026-03
WinLossTrend

Stephens · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
King GreenRating 2.2
Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Mason JonesRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · Sub · R1
Mateusz GamrotRating 2.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Calvin KattarRating 3.2
KO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Dec · R3
Yair RodriguezRating 7.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10

Jones · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Axel SolaRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03
W · KO · R2
Bolaji OkiRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Jeremy StephensRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Ludovit KleinRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07
W · Dec · R3
David OnamaRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori · 2021-10

News & Media

Jeremy Stephens · Mason Jones
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