UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo
Las Vegas, USA
15 Oct 2022
Women's Flyweight
VS
55%
Grasso
45%
Araujo
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Grasso
This is a genuine toss-up — Grasso at 55% vs Araujo at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Grasso has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.
Striking split: Grasso throws more volume but Araujo connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Grasso
Araujo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"+
Height
5'4"
66"
Reach
+68"
32+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Grasso
Araujo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.1
49.0
52.8
Performance Avg
38.7
45
Quality of Victory
29
84
Momentum Score
84
Grasso
Araujo
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.1
41%
Strike Accuracy
44%
2.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
21
6
Body
2
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
22Distance24
3Clinch0
0Ground0
Grasso
Araujo
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.4
/ 10
2.1
/ 10
2.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.4
2.2
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Grasso
Araujo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
80
88
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/22 fights
Chin rating based on
13/20 fights
Grasso
Araujo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
84
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Upcoming
W · Sub · R4
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Grasso
Araujo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
14%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Grasso
Araujo
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.5
3.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
2.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.6
6.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.9
GrassoAraujo
Strike Zones
Grasso
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedAraujo
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Grasso targets the head (64% of attacks) — Araujo absorbs 64% of strikes there
🎯Araujo targets the head (88% of attacks) — Grasso absorbs 88% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Grasso
RND
Araujo
0/0R00/0
Grasso · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Araujo · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Grasso · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Maycee BarberRating 6KO/TKO
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Araujo · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Tracy CortezRating 6.2Decision
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