UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris
Jacksonville, USA
16 May 2020
Women's Flyweight
VS
71%
Casey
29%
Borella
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:36
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Casey
Casey is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Casey has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Borella has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Casey
Borella
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'6"
67"
Reach
+69"
39
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Casey
Borella
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
27.5
11.5
40.3
Performance Avg
35.1
41
Quality of Victory
40
73
Momentum Score
10
Casey
Borella
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
0.9
39%
Strike Accuracy
34%
2.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.6
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
2
1
Body
1
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
2Distance2
1Clinch2
3Ground1
Casey
Borella
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.2
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Casey
Borella
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
50
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/20 fights
Chin rating based on
7/21 fights
Casey
Borella
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
73
10
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Casey
Borella
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Casey
Borella
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.6
3.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.4
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
CaseyBorella
Strike Zones
Casey
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedBorella
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Casey targets the head (67% of attacks) — Borella absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Borella targets the head (40% of attacks) — Casey absorbs 40% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Casey
RND
Borella
0/0R00/0
Casey · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Borella · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Casey · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Antonina ShevchenkoRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · 2022-07
W · Dec · R3
Liana JojuaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · 2021-11
L · Dec · R3
JJ AldrichRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad · 2021-03
L · Sub · R3
Gillian RobertsonRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov · 2020-06
W · Sub · R1
Mara Romero BorellaRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · 2020-05
Borella · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Mayra Bueno SilvaRating 2.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
L · Sub · R1
Cortney CaseyRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · 2020-05
L · Dec · R3
Montana De La RosaRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · 2020-02
L · KO · R3
Lauren MurphyRating 4.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler · 2019-08
W · Dec · R3
Taila SantosRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · 2019-02