UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
London, United Kingdom
18 Mar 2023
Lightweight
VS
55%
Gaethje
45%
Fiziev
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Gaethje
This is a genuine toss-up — Gaethje at 55% vs Fiziev at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Gaethje has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 24 points.
Gaethje has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Gaethje's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Fiziev has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Gaethje
Fiziev
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'8"
70"
Reach
+71"
37
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Gaethje
Fiziev
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
66.1
54.2
63.6
Performance Avg
45.6
62
Quality of Victory
37
100
Momentum Score
100
Gaethje
Fiziev
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
1.6
62%
Strike Accuracy
56%
7.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.5
6 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
48
Head
15
4
Body
19
1
Leg
4
RangeRange
41Distance29
12Clinch9
0Ground0
Gaethje
Fiziev
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.0
/ 10
1.4
/ 10
0.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Gaethje
Fiziev
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
30
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R4.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/32 fights
Chin rating based on
13/18 fights
Gaethje
Fiziev
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
Upcoming
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Gaethje
Fiziev
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
43%
6
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Gaethje
Fiziev
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.5
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
GaethjeFiziev
Strike Zones
Gaethje
Attacking
53 landedAbsorbing
38 absorbedFiziev
Attacking
38 landedAbsorbing
53 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Gaethje targets the head (91% of attacks) — Fiziev absorbs 91% of strikes there
🎯Fiziev targets the body (50% of attacks) — Gaethje absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Gaethje
RND
Fiziev
0/0R00/0
Gaethje · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Fiziev · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Gaethje · Last 5
Upcoming
Ilia TopuriaUFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · Dec · R5
Paddy PimblettRating 6.2Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Rafael FizievRating 5.5Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · KO · R5
Max HollowayRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierRating 6.4KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
Fiziev · Last 5
Upcoming
Manuel TorresUFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06
L · KO · R2
Mauricio RuffyRating 4.4KO/TKO
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Ignacio BahamondesRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Justin GaethjeRating 7.1Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · KO · R2
Mateusz GamrotRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · 2023-09