UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
Nashville, USA
20 Jan 2012
Lightweight
VS
29%
Guillard
71%
Miller
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:04
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Miller
Miller is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Guillard throws more volume but Miller connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Guillard's chin rating of 2 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Miller has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Guillard
Miller
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'8"
71"
Reach
71"
43
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Guillard
Miller
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.7
43.5
49.7
Performance Avg
51.5
45
Quality of Victory
45
73
Momentum Score
28
Guillard
Miller
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.0
41%
Strike Accuracy
41%
7.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
7 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
2
4
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance4
4Clinch0
5Ground0
Guillard
Miller
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.0
0.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.7
0.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Guillard
Miller
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
2
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
6
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
18 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/50 fights
Chin rating based on
47/58 fights
Guillard
Miller
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
73
28
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
Guillard
Miller
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
58%
71%
7
KO / TKO Wins
6
0
Submission Wins
14
5
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Guillard
Miller
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
0.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.7
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
3.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
GuillardMiller
Strike Zones
Guillard
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedMiller
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Guillard targets the head (75% of attacks) — Miller absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Miller targets the head (50% of attacks) — Guillard absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Guillard
RND
Miller
0/0R00/0
Guillard · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Miller · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Guillard · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Michael JohnsonRating 5.6Decision
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