UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver
Boston, USA
18 Jan 2015
Welterweight
VS
40%
Howard
60%
Larkin
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:17
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Larkin
Larkin holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Howard has real paths to victory.
Key angles
Larkin has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Striking split: Larkin throws more volume but Howard connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Howard's chin rating of 46 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Howard
Larkin
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'11"
72"
Reach
72"
43
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Howard
Larkin
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.7
20.5
40.1
Performance Avg
47.0
34
Quality of Victory
45
40
Momentum Score
92
Howard
Larkin
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.9
57%
Strike Accuracy
50%
3.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
24
0
Body
2
10
Leg
3
RangeRange
7Distance17
3Clinch2
0Ground10
Howard
Larkin
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.0
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Howard
Larkin
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
46
70
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/37 fights
Chin rating based on
10/24 fights
Howard
Larkin
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
92
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Howard
Larkin
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
60%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Howard
Larkin
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.0
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.7
6.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.2
HowardLarkin
Strike Zones
Howard
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
29 absorbedLarkin
Attacking
29 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Howard targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Larkin absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Larkin targets the head (83% of attacks) — Howard absorbs 83% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Howard
RND
Larkin
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Howard · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Larkin · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Howard · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Tim MeansRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant · 2015-12
W · Dec · R3
Cathal PendredRating 4.5Decision
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · 2015-07
L · KO · R1
Lorenz LarkinRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01
L · Dec · R3
Brian EbersoleRating 5.5Decision
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09
L · Dec · R3
Ryan LaFlareRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs Nelson · 2014-04
Larkin · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Neil MagnyRating 5.6KO/TKO
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
W · Dec · R3
Jorge MasvidalRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05
L · Dec · R3
Albert TumenovRating 5.5Decision
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit · 2016-01
W · KO · R2
Santiago PonzinibbioRating 5.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero · 2015-06
W · KO · R1
John HowardRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01