UFC 76: Knockout
Anaheim, USA
22 Sept 2007
Light Heavyweight
VS
90%
Machida
10%
Nakamura
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Machida
Machida is a strong favourite at 90% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Machida has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 45 points.
Machida has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Machida's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Machida
Nakamura
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'11"
74"+
Reach
70"
47
Age
+46
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Machida
Nakamura
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.7
2.1
53.8
Performance Avg
0.0
45
Quality of Victory
0
78
Momentum Score
0
Machida
Nakamura
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.6
54%
Strike Accuracy
29%
5.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
7 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
3
12
Body
1
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance2
18Clinch2
3Ground0
Machida
Nakamura
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Machida
Nakamura
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
76
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/32 fights
Chin rating based on
2/34 fights
Machida
Nakamura
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
0
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Machida
Nakamura
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
7
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Machida
Nakamura
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
MachidaNakamura
Strike Zones
Machida
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedNakamura
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Machida targets the body (48% of attacks) — Nakamura absorbs 48% of strikes there
🎯Nakamura targets the head (75% of attacks) — Machida absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Machida
RND
Nakamura
0/0R00/0
Machida · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Nakamura · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.5WinLossTrend
Machida · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Vitor BelfortRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · 2018-05
W · Dec · R5
Eryk AndersRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02
L · KO · R1
Derek BrunsonRating 1.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · 2017-10
L · KO · R3
Yoel RomeroRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero · 2015-06
L · Sub · R2
Luke RockholdRating 2.1Submission
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · 2015-04
Nakamura · Last 2
L · KO · R1
Rameau Thierry SokoudjouRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 84: Ill Will · 2008-05
L · Dec · R3
Lyoto MachidaRating 5.5Decision
UFC 76: Knockout · 2007-09