UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez
Las Vegas, USA
9 Dec 2023
Light Heavyweight
VS
52%
Smith
48%
Jr.
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 0:56
Anthony
Anthony Smith
"Lionheart"
38 – 22
6'4"76" reachOrthodox37 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 58
Khalil
Khalil Rountree Jr.
15 – 7
Striker36 yrsSouthpaw76" reach6'1"
CFR 54

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Smith

This is a genuine toss-up — Smith at 52% vs Jr. at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Jr. throws more volume but Smith connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Smith's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Jr. has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Smith
Jr.
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'1"
76"
Reach
76"
37
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Smith
Jr.
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
58.3
53.7
50.7
Performance Avg
52.0
50
Quality of Victory
48
100
Momentum Score
77
Smith
Jr.
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.4
52%
Strike Accuracy
42%
4.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.2
5 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
4
1
Body
4
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
5Distance10
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Smith
Jr.
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.7
2.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Smith
Jr.
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
6
KO/TKO Losses
4
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/60 fights
Chin rating based on
18/22 fights
Smith
Jr.
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
77
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R4
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
Smith
Jr.
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
77%
70%
5
KO / TKO Wins
7
5
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Smith
Jr.
Striking4.9 / 8.2Volume2.3 / 3.6Grappling3.5 / 0.7Wrestling2.4 / 0.5Submission3.9 / 0.0Pressure6.9 / 6.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.2
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.7
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.5
3.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
2.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
Smith
Strike Zones
Jr.
Smith
Attacking
3HEAD1BODY1LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD4BODY2LEGS10 absorbed
Jr.
Attacking
4HEAD4BODY2LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD1BODY1LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Smith targets the head (60% of attacks) — Jr. absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Jr. targets the head (40% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 40% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Smith
RND
Jr.
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Smith · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0101.5L4.5W5.5L5.2W5.5W5.5W2.8L5.0W5.0W6.0W7.3L5.4W4.4L5.6L5.0W5.5W5.4W4.3L6.3L4.9W4.9L6.1W6.9L3.8L3.5L2013-062018-062020-112024-052025-04
WinLossTrend

Jr. · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.5L2.5L5.0W5.7W5.0W2.3L5.3W1.8L5.9L6.1W5.2W5.9W5.3W6.7W5.5L5.8W5.7L2016-072018-112022-032025-062025-10
WinLossTrend

Smith · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Zhang MingyangRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · KO · R2
Dominick ReyesRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Roman DolidzeRating 6.9
Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · Sub · R1
Vitor PetrinoRating 6.1
Submission
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · KO · R3
Khalil Rountree Jr.Rating 4.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12

Jr. · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Jiri ProchazkaRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
W · Dec · R5
Jamahal HillRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · 2025-06
L · KO · R4
Alex PereiraRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · KO · R3
Anthony SmithRating 6.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12
W · KO · R1
Chris DaukausRating 5.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · 2023-08

News & Media

Anthony Smith · Khalil Rountree Jr.
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