UFC 107: Penn vs Sanchez
Memphis, USA
12 Dec 2009
Lightweight
VS
29%
Florian
71%
Guida
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 2:19
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Guida
Guida is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Florian has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Florian's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Guida has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Florian
Guida
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'7"
74"+
Reach
70"
49
Age
+44
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Florian
Guida
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.7
44.2
55.4
Performance Avg
40.7
45
Quality of Victory
35
28
Momentum Score
78
Florian
Guida
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.0
46%
Strike Accuracy
36%
3.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.1
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
1
2
Body
0
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
9Distance3
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Florian
Guida
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
5.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.7
3.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Florian
Guida
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
0
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
8
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
16 fights ago
Last KO loss
14 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/20 fights
Chin rating based on
37/60 fights
Florian
Guida
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
78
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Florian
Guida
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
39%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
7
Submission Wins
5
3
Decision Wins
11
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Florian
Guida
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.1
5.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
3.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
5.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.8
7.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
2.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.9
FlorianGuida
Strike Zones
Florian
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedGuida
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Florian targets the head (80% of attacks) — Guida absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Guida targets the legs (67% of attacks) — Florian absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Florian
RND
Guida
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Florian · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Guida · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Florian · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Jose AldoRating 6Decision
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3 · 2011-10
W · Dec · R3
Diego NunesRating 4.5Decision
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin · 2011-06
L · Dec · R3
Gray MaynardRating 5.5Decision
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2 · 2010-08
W · Sub · R3
Takanori GomiRating 5.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi · 2010-03
W · Sub · R2
Clay GuidaRating 5.7Submission
UFC 107: Penn vs Sanchez · 2009-12
Guida · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Chase HooperRating 2.3Submission
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L · Dec · R3
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Rafa GarciaRating 6.3Decision
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