UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
26 Oct 2024
Catch Weight
VS
41%
Rebecki
59%
Orolbai
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Mateusz
Mateusz Rebecki
20 – 5
5'7"66" reachSouthpaw33 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 46
Myktybek
Myktybek Orolbai
16 – 2
Well-Rounded3-fight win streak28 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'10"
CFR 67

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Orolbai

This is a genuine toss-up — Rebecki at 41% vs Orolbai at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Rebecki has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Rebecki's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Rebecki
Orolbai
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'10"
66"
Reach
+74"
33
Age
+28
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Rebecki
Orolbai
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
46.4
67.1
43.8
Performance Avg
59.0
40
Quality of Victory
43
50
Momentum Score
92
Rebecki
Orolbai
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
0.9
51%
Strike Accuracy
47%
3.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
20
Head
14
0
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance13
3Clinch0
12Ground1
Rebecki
Orolbai
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
3.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.2
2.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Rebecki
Orolbai
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
98
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/25 fights
Chin rating based on
6/18 fights
Rebecki
Orolbai
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
92
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Rebecki
Orolbai
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
60%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Rebecki
Orolbai
Striking3.5 / 3.7Volume5.0 / 4.9Grappling3.2 / 4.2Wrestling2.2 / 2.9Submission2.5 / 4.0Pressure5.0 / 6.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.7
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.2
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
Rebecki
Strike Zones
Orolbai
Rebecki
Attacking
20HEAD0BODY1LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD0BODY0LEGS14 absorbed
Orolbai
Attacking
14HEAD0BODY0LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
20HEAD0BODY1LEGS21 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Rebecki targets the head (95% of attacks) — Orolbai absorbs 95% of strikes there
🎯Orolbai targets the head (100% of attacks) — Rebecki absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Rebecki
RND
Orolbai
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Rebecki · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0104.5W5.8W5.2W5.0L6.1W6.8L6.7L5.5L2023-012023-112024-102025-102026-05
WinLossTrend

Orolbai · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0107.1W5.3W6.1L5.2W5.9W5.2W2023-112024-052024-102025-062025-112026-03
WinLossTrend

Rebecki · Last 5

L · Sub · R3
Grant DawsonRating 5.5
Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Ludovit KleinRating 6.7
Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Chris DuncanRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · 2025-08
W · Dec · R3
Myktybek OrolbaiRating 6.1
Decision
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
L · KO · R3
Diego FerreiraRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05

Orolbai · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Chris CurtisRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
W · KO · R1
Jack HermanssonRating 5.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
W · Sub · R1
Tofiq MusayevRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Mateusz RebeckiRating 6.1
Decision
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Elves BrenerRating 5.3
Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05

News & Media

Mateusz Rebecki · Myktybek Orolbai
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