Mateusz Rebecki vs Myktybek Orolbai — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway

Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

26 Oct 2024

Catch Weight

46%

Rebecki

54%

Orolbai

Win Probability

Decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Mateusz Rebecki

20 – 5

5'7"66" reachSouthpaw33 yrsWell-Rounded

CFR 50

Myktybek Orolbai

16 – 2

Well-Rounded28 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'10"

CFR 59

★ Official Result

Mateusz RebeckiwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00

def. Myktybek Orolbai · UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Orolbai

→

Actual result

Rebecki wins

Decision · R3

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Rebecki at 46% vs Orolbai at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Rebecki's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

RebeckiOrolbai

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Rebecki

Orolbai

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'7"

Height

+5'10"

66"

Reach

+74"

Age

+28

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

Rebecki

Orolbai

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

50.1

59.0

48.5

Performance Avg

54.2

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Rebecki

Orolbai

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

5.1

/ 10

3.4

/ 10

5.9

Style: Pressure

6.3

4.3

Style: Volume

4.6

2 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

1 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

6Distance13

3Clinch0

12Ground1

Rebecki

Orolbai

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

2.6

/ 10

4.2

/ 10

1.8

Wrestling Style (/10)

2.9

2.0

Submission Style (/10)

4.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Rebecki

Orolbai

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Moderate

Verdict

Never stopped

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R3.0 stoppage

KO round context

—

5 fights ago

Last KO loss

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

9/25 fights

Chin rating based on

7/18 fights

Rebecki

Orolbai

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

W · KO · R1

L · Sub · R3

L · Dec · R3

W · Dec · R3

Last 5

L · Sub · R3

W · Dec · R3

W · KO · R1

W · Sub · R1

L · Dec · R3

Rebecki

Orolbai

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

60%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Rebecki

Orolbai

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

5.1

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

3.4

2.6

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

4.2

1.8

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

2.9

2.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

4.0

5.9

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

6.3

4.3

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

4.6

Rebecki

Strike Zones

Orolbai

Rebecki

Attacking

21 landed

Absorbing

14 absorbed

Orolbai

Attacking

14 landed

Absorbing

21 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Rebecki targets the head (95% of attacks) — Orolbai absorbs 95% of strikes there

🎯Orolbai targets the head (100% of attacks) — Rebecki absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Rebecki

RND

Orolbai

0/0R00/0

0/0R10/0

Rebecki · Last 5

W · KO · R1

Kyle Prepolec

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez · 2026-08

L · Sub · R3

Grant Dawson

Submission

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05

L · Dec · R3

Ludovit Klein

Decision

UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10

L · Dec · R3

Chris Duncan

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · 2025-08

W · Dec · R3

Myktybek Orolbai

Decision

UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10

Orolbai · Last 5

L · Sub · R3

Jeremiah Wells

Submission

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · 2026-08

W · Dec · R3

Chris Curtis

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03

W · KO · R1

Jack Hermansson

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11

W · Sub · R1

Tofiq Musayev

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · 2025-06

L · Dec · R3

Mateusz Rebecki

Decision

UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10

News & Media

Mateusz Rebecki · Myktybek Orolbai

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