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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot
Atlantic City, USA
30 Mar 2024
Featherweight
VS
52%
Algeo
48%
Nelson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:00
Bill
Bill Algeo
"Senor Perfecto"
18 – 9
6'0"73" reachSwitch37 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 39
Kyle
Kyle Nelson
"The Monster"
17 – 7
Well-Rounded35 yrsSwitch71" reach5'11"
CFR 37
★ Official Result
Kyle NelsonwinsKO/TKOR1 · 4:00
def. Bill Algeo · UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Algeo
→
Actual result
Nelson wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Algeo at 52% vs Nelson at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Algeo has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Algeo's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Nelson has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
AlgeoNelson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Algeo
Nelson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
73"+
Reach
71"
37
Age
+35
Switch
Stance
Switch
Algeo
Nelson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.1
36.8
41.5
Performance Avg
41.6
36
Quality of Victory
39
51
Momentum Score
36
Algeo
Nelson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.9
1.0
49%
Strike Accuracy
47%
3.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.9
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
20
11
Body
6
8
Leg
6
RangeRange
30Distance28
0Clinch4
0Ground0
Algeo
Nelson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.0
/ 10
1.4
/ 10
2.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.0
2.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Algeo
Nelson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/27 fights
Chin rating based on
12/24 fights
Algeo
Nelson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
51
36
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Algeo
Nelson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
40%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Algeo
Nelson
Striking3.0 / 4.9Volume5.8 / 5.7Grappling3.0 / 1.4Wrestling2.1 / 1.0Submission2.0 / 0.0Pressure4.3 / 4.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.9
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
5.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
Algeo
Strike Zones
Nelson
Algeo
Attacking
11HEAD11BODY8LEGS30 landed
Absorbing
20HEAD6BODY6LEGS32 absorbed
Nelson
Attacking
20HEAD6BODY6LEGS32 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD11BODY8LEGS30 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Algeo targets the head (37% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 37% of strikes there
🎯Nelson targets the head (63% of attacks) — Algeo absorbs 63% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Algeo
RND
Nelson
0/0R00/0

Algeo · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.5L4.5W5.6L6.1W5.6W6.2L5.2W5.4W1.6L4.5L2020-082022-012023-042024-07
WinLossTrend

Nelson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0103.8L4.0L5.0W5.2L6.2L4.5W5.8W5.2W3.4L4.7W3.0L2018-122020-092023-092025-102026-03
WinLossTrend

Algeo · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Dooho ChoiRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07
L · KO · R1
Kyle NelsonRating 1.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03
W · Dec · R3
Alexander HernandezRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · 2023-10
W · Sub · R2
TJ BrownRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
L · Dec · R3
Andre FiliRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · 2022-09

Nelson · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Terrance McKinneyRating 3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Matt FrevolaRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Steve GarciaRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
W · KO · R1
Bill AlgeoRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03
W · Dec · R3
Fernando PadillaRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09

News & Media

Bill Algeo · Kyle Nelson
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