METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 77: Hostile Territory
Cincinnati, USA
20 Oct 2007
Lightweight
VS
82%
Grice
18%
Black
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Matt GricewinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Jason Black · UFC 77: Hostile Territory
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Grice
→
Actual result
Grice wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Grice is a strong favourite at 82% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Grice has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.
Grice has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Grice's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
GriceBlack
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Grice
Black
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
5'8"
70"
Reach
44+
Age
54
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Grice
Black
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
10.6
2.4
26.4
Performance Avg
0.0
25
Quality of Victory
0
55
Momentum Score
0
Grice
Black
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.3
0.1
52%
Strike Accuracy
20%
0.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
0
2
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance0
1Clinch2
17Ground0
Grice
Black
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.7
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Grice
Black
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
30
86
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/20 fights
Chin rating based on
2/27 fights
Grice
Black
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
55
0
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Grice
Black
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Grice
Black
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
8.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
GriceBlack
Strike Zones
Grice
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedBlack
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Grice targets the head (90% of attacks) — Black absorbs 90% of strikes there
🎯Black targets the body (100% of attacks) — Grice absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Grice
RND
Black
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Grice · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.9WinLossTrend
Black · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Grice · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Dennis BermudezRating 5.5Decision
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche · 2013-02
W · Dec · R3
Leonard GarciaRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall · 2012-06
L · KO · R1
Ricardo LamasRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry · 2011-06
L · Sub · R1
Shannon GugertyRating 1.5Submission
UFC 100 · 2009-07
L · KO · R1
Matt VeachRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lauzon vs Stephens · 2009-02
Black · Last 2
L · Dec · R3
Matt GriceRating 5.5Decision
UFC 77: Hostile Territory · 2007-10
L · Sub · R2
Thiago TavaresRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Stout vs Fisher · 2007-06