METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 77: Hostile Territory
Cincinnati, USA
20 Oct 2007
Lightweight
VS
82%
Grice
18%
Black
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Matt GricewinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Jason Black · UFC 77: Hostile Territory
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Grice
→
Actual result
Grice wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Grice is a strong favourite at 82% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Grice has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.
Risk flags
Grice's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
GriceBlack
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Grice
Black
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
5'8"
70"
Reach
45+
Age
54
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Grice
Black
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
10.6
2.4
26.4
Performance Avg
0.0
25
Quality of Victory
0
55
Momentum Score
0
Grice
Black
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.6
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
0.9
Style: Pressure
0.0
8.6
Style: Volume
0.0
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
0
2
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance0
1Clinch2
17Ground0
Grice
Black
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Grice
Black
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
30
86
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/20 fights
Chin rating based on
2/27 fights
Grice
Black
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
55
0
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Grice
Black
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Grice
Black
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
8.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
GriceBlack
Strike Zones
Grice
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedBlack
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Grice targets the head (90% of attacks) — Black absorbs 90% of strikes there
🎯Black targets the body (100% of attacks) — Grice absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Grice
RND
Black
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Grice · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Dennis BermudezDecision
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche · 2013-02
W · Dec · R3
Leonard GarciaDecision
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall · 2012-06
L · KO · R1
Ricardo LamasKO/TKO
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry · 2011-06
L · Sub · R1
Shannon GugertySubmission
UFC 100 · 2009-07
L · KO · R1
Matt VeachKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lauzon vs Stephens · 2009-02
Black · Last 2
L · Dec · R3
Matt GriceDecision
UFC 77: Hostile Territory · 2007-10
L · Sub · R2
Thiago TavaresSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Stout vs Fisher · 2007-06