UFC 77: Hostile Territory
Cincinnati, USA
20 Oct 2007
Lightweight
VS
82%
Grice
18%
Black
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
MG
Matt Grice
"The Real One"
15 – 5
5'8"70" reachOrthodox44 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 11
JB
Jason Black
"The Black Legion"
23 – 4
Well-Rounded2-fight slide53 yrsOrthodox5'8"
CFR 2

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Grice

Grice is a strong favourite at 82% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Grice has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.

Grice has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Grice's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Grice
Black
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
5'8"
70"
Reach
44+
Age
53
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Grice
Black
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
10.6
2.4
26.4
Performance Avg
0.0
25
Quality of Victory
0
55
Momentum Score
0
Grice
Black
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.3
0.1
52%
Strike Accuracy
20%
0.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
0
2
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance0
1Clinch2
17Ground0
Grice
Black
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.7
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Grice
Black
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
30
86
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/20 fights
Chin rating based on
2/27 fights
Grice
Black
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
55
0
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Grice
Black
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Grice
Black
Striking0.6 / 0.0Volume8.6 / 0.0Grappling2.4 / 0.0Wrestling1.7 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure0.9 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
8.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Grice
Strike Zones
Black
Grice
Attacking
19HEAD2BODY0LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD2BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Black
Attacking
0HEAD2BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
19HEAD2BODY0LEGS21 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Grice targets the head (90% of attacks) — Black absorbs 90% of strikes there
🎯Black targets the body (100% of attacks) — Grice absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Grice
RND
Black
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Grice · QOF Timeline

Avg: 2.9
0101.5L4.5W1.5L1.5L1.5L4.5W5.5L2007-042009-022011-062013-02
WinLossTrend

Black · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0102.8L5.5L2007-062007-10
WinLossTrend

Grice · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Dennis BermudezRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche · 2013-02
W · Dec · R3
Leonard GarciaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall · 2012-06
L · KO · R1
Ricardo LamasRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry · 2011-06
L · Sub · R1
Shannon GugertyRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 100 · 2009-07
L · KO · R1
Matt VeachRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lauzon vs Stephens · 2009-02

Black · Last 2

L · Dec · R3
Matt GriceRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 77: Hostile Territory · 2007-10
L · Sub · R2
Thiago TavaresRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Stout vs Fisher · 2007-06

News & Media

Matt Grice · Jason Black
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