UFC 83: Serra vs St-Pierre 2
Montreal, Canada
19 Apr 2008
Middleweight
VS
45%
Day
55%
Belcher
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:58
JD
Jason Day
"Dooms"
19 – 12
6'0"72" reachOrthodox45 yrs2-fight slideKnockout Artist
CFR 19
AB
Alan Belcher
"The Talent"
18 – 8
Well-Rounded2-fight slide42 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'2"
CFR 22

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Belcher

This is a genuine toss-up — Day at 45% vs Belcher at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Day has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.

Day has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Day's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Belcher has a chin rating of 58 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Day
Belcher
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'2"
72"
Reach
+75"
45
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Day
Belcher
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.6
22.4
49.3
Performance Avg
53.0
60
Quality of Victory
48
43
Momentum Score
100
Day
Belcher
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
5.6
1.4
53%
Strike Accuracy
43%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.6
1 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
24
Head
1
4
Body
2
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
12Distance2
17Clinch0
0Ground1
Day
Belcher
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.9
0.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Day
Belcher
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
58
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
9 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/31 fights
Chin rating based on
15/26 fights
Day
Belcher
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
Day
Belcher
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
78%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
3
0
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Day
Belcher
Striking10.0 / 5.6Volume0.7 / 2.1Grappling0.0 / 2.9Wrestling0.0 / 2.0Submission0.0 / 3.3Pressure8.0 / 7.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.6
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.2
0.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.1
Day
Strike Zones
Belcher
Day
Attacking
24HEAD4BODY1LEGS29 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD2BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Belcher
Attacking
1HEAD2BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
24HEAD4BODY1LEGS29 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Day targets the head (83% of attacks) — Belcher absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Belcher targets the body (67% of attacks) — Day absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Day
RND
Belcher
0/0R00/0

Day · QOF Timeline

Avg: 2.7
0105.0W1.5L1.5L2008-042008-062009-03
WinLossTrend

Belcher · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.5L5.5W2.8L5.0W4.2W1.5L4.7W5.2W5.5L5.0W5.2W5.0W5.0W5.5L5.5L2006-082007-102009-072012-052013-04
WinLossTrend

Day · Last 3

L · KO · R1
Kendall GroveRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 96: Jackson vs Jardine · 2009-03
L · KO · R1
Michael BispingRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 85: Bedlam · 2008-06
W · KO · R1
Alan BelcherRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 83: Serra vs St-Pierre 2 · 2008-04

Belcher · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Michael BispingRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen · 2013-04
L · Dec · R3
Yushin OkamiRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II · 2012-12
W · KO · R1
Rousimar PalharesRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller · 2012-05
W · KO · R1
Jason MacDonaldRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · 2011-09
W · Sub · R2
Patrick CoteRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2 · 2010-05

News & Media

Jason Day · Alan Belcher
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