UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes
Utica, USA
1 Jun 2018
Lightweight
VS
39%
Gillespie
61%
Pichel
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 4:06
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Pichel
Pichel holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Gillespie has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Gillespie has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 21 points.
Gillespie has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Pichel has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Gillespie
Pichel
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'10"
71"
Reach
+72"
39+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Gillespie
Pichel
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
24.8
39.5
65.3
Performance Avg
41.3
51
Quality of Victory
30
89
Momentum Score
40
Gillespie
Pichel
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.7
1.5
58%
Strike Accuracy
47%
7.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.6
4 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
3
0
Body
0
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance1
0Clinch3
4Ground0
Gillespie
Pichel
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.6
/ 10
2.1
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.4
2.9
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Gillespie
Pichel
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
60
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
11 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/15 fights
Chin rating based on
12/19 fights
Gillespie
Pichel
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
89
40
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Gillespie
Pichel
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
86%
14%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Gillespie
Pichel
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.6
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
2.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.8
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.0
GillespiePichel
Strike Zones
Gillespie
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedPichel
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Gillespie targets the head (80% of attacks) — Pichel absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Pichel targets the head (75% of attacks) — Gillespie absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Gillespie
RND
Pichel
0/0R00/0
Gillespie · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Pichel · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Gillespie · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Diego FerreiraRating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · 2021-05
L · KO · R1
Kevin LeeRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
W · KO · R2
Yancy MedeirosRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · 2019-01
W · Sub · R2
Vinc PichelRating 5.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · 2018-06
W · KO · R1
Jordan RinaldiRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 · 2018-01
Pichel · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Ismael BonfimRating 5.9Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Mark MadsenRating 5.7Decision
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04
W · Dec · R3
Austin HubbardRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · 2021-08
W · Dec · R3
Jim MillerRating 4.9Decision
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · 2020-08