UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson
Mexico City, Mexico
5 Nov 2016
Lightweight
VS
46%
Anjos
54%
Ferguson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Rafael
Rafael Dos Anjos
32 – 17
5'8"70" reachSouthpaw41 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 39
Tony
Tony Ferguson
"El Cucuy"
26 – 11
Well-Rounded8-fight slide42 yrsOrthodox76" reach5'11"
CFR 45

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Ferguson

This is a genuine toss-up — Anjos at 46% vs Ferguson at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Ferguson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Anjos's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Ferguson has a chin rating of 12 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Anjos
Ferguson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'11"
70"
Reach
+76"
41+
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Anjos
Ferguson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
38.8
45.2
47.7
Performance Avg
54.2
41
Quality of Victory
49
49
Momentum Score
52
Anjos
Ferguson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.9
47%
Strike Accuracy
47%
3.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.3
4 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
34
1
Body
1
6
Leg
8
RangeRange
26Distance43
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Anjos
Ferguson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.8
2.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Anjos
Ferguson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
12
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
36/49 fights
Chin rating based on
24/37 fights
Anjos
Ferguson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
49
52
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
8-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R5
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R2
Anjos
Ferguson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
43%
60%
4
KO / TKO Wins
3
5
Submission Wins
6
12
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Anjos
Ferguson
Striking3.1 / 3.3Volume5.7 / 3.4Grappling3.3 / 3.8Wrestling2.3 / 2.7Submission2.4 / 4.0Pressure4.8 / 6.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
2.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
Anjos
Strike Zones
Ferguson
Anjos
Attacking
19HEAD1BODY6LEGS26 landed
Absorbing
34HEAD1BODY8LEGS43 absorbed
Ferguson
Attacking
34HEAD1BODY8LEGS43 landed
Absorbing
19HEAD1BODY6LEGS26 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Anjos targets the head (73% of attacks) — Ferguson absorbs 73% of strikes there
🎯Ferguson targets the head (79% of attacks) — Anjos absorbs 79% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Anjos
RND
Ferguson
0/0R00/0

Anjos · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5L5.5L4.5W4.5W5.2W4.5L5.0W5.5L5.0W4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5L5.2W5.0W4.5W4.5W5.0W1.5L6.0L4.5W5.6W4.8W6.8L6.6L5.4W6.6L6.3L4.5W5.3W5.0L5.7W7.0L6.6L2.5L2008-112012-072015-122019-072024-10
WinLossTrend

Ferguson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.0W4.0W4.5W5.6L5.0W5.0W4.5W5.2W5.0W4.5W5.7W5.8W4.7W5.3W5.2W4.2W5.6L6.9L6.5L3.5L3.4L4.7L7.2L2.3L2011-062014-082016-112021-052024-08
WinLossTrend

Anjos · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Geoff NealRating 2.5
KO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Mateusz GamrotRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · Dec · R5
Vicente LuqueRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · 2023-08
W · Sub · R2
Bryan BarberenaRating 5.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · KO · R5
Rafael FizievRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · 2022-07

Ferguson · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Michael ChiesaRating 2.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Paddy PimblettRating 7.2
Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R3
King GreenRating 4.7
Submission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Sub · R4
Nate DiazRating 3.4
Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · KO · R2
Michael ChandlerRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05

News & Media

Rafael Dos Anjos · Tony Ferguson
← Back to fights