UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
Curitiba, Brazil
14 May 2016
Welterweight
VS
43%
Maia
57%
Brown
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 4:31
DM
Demian Maia
28 – 11
6'1"72" reachSouthpaw48 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 32
MB
Matt Brown
"The Immortal"
26 – 19
Knockout Artist45 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'0"
CFR 43

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Brown

This is a genuine toss-up — Maia at 43% vs Brown at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Brown has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.

Brown has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Maia's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Brown has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Maia
Brown
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
6'0"
72"
Reach
+75"
48
Age
+45
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Maia
Brown
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
32.4
42.5
50.8
Performance Avg
54.0
40
Quality of Victory
52
100
Momentum Score
78
Maia
Brown
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.5
1.5
41%
Strike Accuracy
60%
1.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
13 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
4
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
0Clinch0
6Ground4
Maia
Brown
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
3.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Maia
Brown
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
5
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
33/39 fights
Chin rating based on
30/45 fights
Maia
Brown
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
78
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Maia
Brown
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
55%
88%
1
KO / TKO Wins
13
11
Submission Wins
2
10
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Maia
Brown
Striking1.8 / 8.8Volume5.0 / 2.1Grappling5.1 / 1.2Wrestling3.6 / 0.8Submission5.0 / 1.2Pressure5.8 / 7.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.8
5.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.2
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.9
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.1
Maia
Strike Zones
Brown
Maia
Attacking
8HEAD0BODY0LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Brown
Attacking
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD0BODY0LEGS8 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Maia targets the head (100% of attacks) — Brown absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Brown targets the head (100% of attacks) — Maia absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Maia
RND
Brown
0/0R00/0

Maia · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.0W5.4W5.5W5.0W5.0W1.5L4.5W5.5L4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W6.3L5.0W5.0W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.5W5.9W5.6W5.9W5.0W4.5W5.5L6.8L6.6L5.0W4.5W5.2W1.7L6.6L2007-102010-122014-052018-052021-06
WinLossTrend

Brown · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.2W5.5L5.2W5.0W5.5W2.8L2.8L2.8L4.5W2.8L5.2W5.1W5.2W5.2W5.2W5.0W5.2W5.8L5.5L5.1W4.0L1.5L4.0L5.0W5.2W3.3L5.5L5.2W5.9L5.2W2008-062011-062014-052019-122023-05
WinLossTrend

Maia · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6
Decision
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L · KO · R1
Gilbert BurnsRating 1.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · 2020-03
W · Sub · R3
Ben AskrenRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren · 2019-10
W · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · 2019-06
W · Sub · R1
Lyman GoodRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · 2019-02

Brown · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Court McGeeRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05
L · Dec · R3
Bryan BarberenaRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03
W · KO · R2
Dhiego LimaRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige · 2021-06
L · Dec · R3
Carlos ConditRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · 2021-01
L · KO · R2
Miguel BaezaRating 3.3
KO/TKO
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News & Media

Demian Maia · Matt Brown
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