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UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall
London, United Kingdom
23 Jul 2022
Middleweight
VS
52%
Hermansson
48%
Curtis
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Jack
Jack Hermansson
"The Joker"
24 – 10
6'1"77" reachOrthodox38 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 54
Chris
Chris Curtis
"Action-Man"
32 – 13
Well-Rounded39 yrsOrthodox75" reach5'10"
CFR 50
★ Official Result
Jack HermanssonwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Chris Curtis · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Hermansson
→
Actual result
Hermansson wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Hermansson at 52% vs Curtis at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Curtis has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Hermansson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
HermanssonCurtis
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Hermansson
Curtis
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'10"
77"+
Reach
75"
38+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Hermansson
Curtis
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
53.8
49.5
48.1
Performance Avg
46.3
42
Quality of Victory
41
97
Momentum Score
54
Hermansson
Curtis
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.1
2.3
50%
Strike Accuracy
53%
3.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.1
3 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
10
12
Body
10
7
Leg
0
RangeRange
34Distance18
0Clinch2
0Ground0
Hermansson
Curtis
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
2.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Hermansson
Curtis
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
70
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
5
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.4 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/34 fights
Chin rating based on
12/45 fights
Hermansson
Curtis
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
97
54
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Hermansson
Curtis
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
55%
50%
3
KO / TKO Wins
3
3
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Hermansson
Curtis
Striking3.9 / 6.1Volume4.8 / 5.1Grappling3.3 / 1.2Wrestling2.3 / 0.8Submission2.7 / 0.0Pressure5.6 / 5.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
2.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.1
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.1
Hermansson
Strike Zones
Curtis
Hermansson
Attacking
15HEAD12BODY7LEGS34 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD10BODY0LEGS20 absorbed
Curtis
Attacking
10HEAD10BODY0LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD12BODY7LEGS34 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Hermansson targets the head (44% of attacks) — Curtis absorbs 44% of strikes there
🎯Curtis targets the head (50% of attacks) — Hermansson absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Hermansson
RND
Curtis
0/0R00/0

Hermansson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.5W2.8L5.0W5.0W1.5L5.5W6.1W5.0W4.5W3.1L5.3W6.3L5.9W6.6L5.2W4.2L6.5W3.1L3.1L2016-092018-052020-072022-122025-11
WinLossTrend

Curtis · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.9
0105.0W6.6W5.8W6.4L6.4W5.8L4.5W6.8L5.0L5.1W7.1L2021-112022-072024-012025-072026-03
WinLossTrend

Hermansson · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Myktybek OrolbaiRating 3.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
L · KO · R1
Gregory RodriguesRating 3.1
KO/TKO
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Joe PyferRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · KO · R2
Roman DolidzeRating 4.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · Dec · R3
Chris CurtisRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07

Curtis · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Myktybek OrolbaiRating 7.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Roman KopylovRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
L · Dec · R5
Brendan AllenRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · 2024-04
W · Dec · R3
Marc-Andre BarriaultRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01

News & Media

Jack Hermansson · Chris Curtis
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