METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joanna vs. Team Cláudia Finale
Las Vegas, USA
8 Jul 2016
Flyweight
VS
33%
Moraga
67%
Nicolau
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Matheus NicolauwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. John Moraga · The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joanna vs. Team Cláudia Finale
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Nicolau
→
Actual result
Nicolau wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Nicolau holds a meaningful edge at 67% per the CFR ratings — but Moraga has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Nicolau has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Moraga's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nicolau has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MoragaNicolau
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Moraga
Nicolau
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
5'6"
66"
Reach
66"
42
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Moraga
Nicolau
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.3
38.0
47.9
Performance Avg
44.7
42
Quality of Victory
32
64
Momentum Score
49
Moraga
Nicolau
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.0
1.1
47%
Strike Accuracy
52%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.7
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
4
0
Body
2
1
Leg
4
RangeRange
8Distance10
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Moraga
Nicolau
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.9
/ 10
2.9
/ 10
2.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.0
3.8
Submission Style (/10)
1.4
3
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Moraga
Nicolau
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
32
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/26 fights
Chin rating based on
11/25 fights
Moraga
Nicolau
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
64
49
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Moraga
Nicolau
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
63%
29%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Moraga
Nicolau
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.7
3.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
4.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.0
MoragaNicolau
Strike Zones
Moraga
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedNicolau
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Moraga targets the head (88% of attacks) — Nicolau absorbs 88% of strikes there
🎯Nicolau targets the head (40% of attacks) — Moraga absorbs 40% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Moraga
RND
Nicolau
0/0R00/0
Moraga · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Nicolau · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Moraga · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Deiveson FigueiredoRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
W · Dec · R3
Wilson ReisRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04
W · KO · R1
Magomed BibulatovRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee · 2017-10
W · Dec · R3
Ashkan MokhtarianRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt · 2017-06
L · Dec · R3
Sergio PettisRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · 2017-01
Nicolau · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Asu AlmabayevRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
L · KO · R2
Alex PerezRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
L · KO · R1
Brandon RoyvalRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · KO · R2
Matt SchnellRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · Dec · R3
David DvorakRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03