METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joanna vs. Team Cláudia Finale
Las Vegas, USA
8 Jul 2016
Flyweight
VS
33%
Moraga
67%
Nicolau
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Matheus NicolauwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. John Moraga · The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joanna vs. Team Cláudia Finale
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Nicolau
→
Actual result
Nicolau wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Nicolau holds a meaningful edge at 67% per the CFR ratings — but Moraga has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Moraga's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nicolau has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MoragaNicolau
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Moraga
Nicolau
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
5'6"
66"
Reach
66"
42
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Moraga
Nicolau
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.3
38.0
47.9
Performance Avg
44.7
42
Quality of Victory
32
64
Momentum Score
49
Moraga
Nicolau
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.6
/ 10
2.7
/ 10
6.1
Style: Pressure
3.9
4.1
Style: Volume
7.0
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
4
0
Body
2
1
Leg
4
RangeRange
8Distance10
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Moraga
Nicolau
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.9
/ 10
2.9
/ 10
2.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.0
3.8
Submission Style (/10)
1.4
3
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Moraga
Nicolau
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
32
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/26 fights
Chin rating based on
11/25 fights
Moraga
Nicolau
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
64
49
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Moraga
Nicolau
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
63%
29%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Moraga
Nicolau
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.7
3.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
4.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.0
MoragaNicolau
Strike Zones
Moraga
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedNicolau
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Moraga targets the head (88% of attacks) — Nicolau absorbs 88% of strikes there
🎯Nicolau targets the head (40% of attacks) — Moraga absorbs 40% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Moraga
RND
Nicolau
0/0R00/0
Moraga · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Deiveson FigueiredoKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
W · Dec · R3
Wilson ReisDecision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04
W · KO · R1
Magomed BibulatovKO/TKO
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee · 2017-10
W · Dec · R3
Ashkan MokhtarianDecision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt · 2017-06
L · Dec · R3
Sergio PettisDecision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · 2017-01
Nicolau · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Asu AlmabayevDecision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
L · KO · R2
Alex PerezKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
L · KO · R1
Brandon RoyvalKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · KO · R2
Matt SchnellKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · Dec · R3
David DvorakDecision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03